Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 3, 2026

TL;DRNaly’s biggest May 3, 2026 disagreements with Polymarket are both Iran diplomacy markets: U.S.-Iran meeting YES at 18c looks closer to 99c, and J.D. Vance meeting YES at 19c also looks near 99c. The sharpest reason is not sentiment but already documented face-to-face talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, which make both contracts look mechanically underpriced unless resolution wording creates a surprise.

Key Takeaways

The two strongest answer flips come from the same Islamabad diplomacy weekend, so the edge is really about contract interpretation risk versus already reported facts.

Both Iran contracts look mispriced because public reporting already describes the relevant meetings, which shifts the question from future odds to whether the oracle counts those talks.

OpenAI is a weaker disagreement, but not a trivial one: retail-allocation planning, H2 filing chatter, and partnership cleanup make a 2026 IPO materially more live than a 72c NOT IPO market implies.

The sharpest residual risk across all three picks is wording, timing, or settlement mechanics rather than a lack of fresh news.

3 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

YES Resolves May 15, 2026 Open High confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 82%

Naly Top Answer YES 99%

Max Payout if Correct +82c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Reuters, Axios, and AP all describe face-to-face Islamabad talks, so this looks more like wording risk than a true future-odds question.

Event Snapshot

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?

YES Resolves May 31, 2026 Open High confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 81%

Naly Top Answer YES 99%

Max Payout if Correct +81c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Vance was publicly named as the delegation head and AP says he led 21 hours of talks, leaving mostly definition risk.

Event Snapshot

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

YES Resolves December 31, 2026 Open Medium confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 72%

Naly Top Answer NO 55%

Max Payout if Correct +28c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market treats delay as the default, but concrete IPO-prep signals make an actual 2026 listing more plausible than 28% odds.

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

GeopoliticsContract · YESResolves May 15, 2026OpenHigh confidence

+82c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 82%

Naly Top Answer YES 99%
Trade on Polymarket →

Reuters, Axios, and AP all describe face-to-face Islamabad talks, so this looks more like wording risk than a true future-odds question.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Axios and Reuters both report direct or trilateral face-to-face U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11-12, 2026.

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Effect Effect: Once a qualifying diplomatic meeting is publicly documented before the deadline, the contract should trade on settlement-definition risk, not on the probability that diplomacy might still happen.

↓

Projection Projection: Unless the oracle adopts an unexpectedly narrow reading of “diplomatic meeting,” the YES side should converge sharply higher before May 15, 2026.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Axios reported on April 11, 2026 that direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran had begun in Islamabad.
▲ | Reuters reported on April 13, 2026 that the weekend meeting was the first direct encounter in more than a decade and the highest-level engagement since 1979.
▲ | Reuters reported on April 18, 2026 that both sides were still discussing a next round, which reinforces that the first round was treated publicly as negotiations, not rumor.
▲ | Axios reported on April 26, 2026 that Iranian and U.S. interlocutors were still trading proposals through Islamabad, showing the diplomatic channel remained active after the first meeting.
▼ | The main bearish case is not factual absence but a narrower settlement interpretation, for example whether mediated trilateral talks count the same as a bilateral diplomatic meeting.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 18% YES from the market quote before fully crediting the already reported Islamabad meeting.

Positive update: Multiple outlets and a cited White House official describe face-to-face talks that occurred before the deadline.

Negative update: Residual oracle risk remains if the market requires a stricter definition than ordinary diplomatic reporting uses.

Naly estimate: 99% YES, which maps to a 99c fair price on the same binary contract.

Alternative explanation: The alternative explanation is that traders are not missing the meeting itself; they are deliberately discounting a legalistic settlement wrinkle about whether a mediated or trilateral session qualifies.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We would likely be wrong only if the resolution source requires something narrower than the public reporting describes, such as a bilateral one-on-one meeting, a formally announced diplomatic summit, or another contract-specific standard that excludes the Islamabad talks.

Fresh Checks

Axios: Direct U.S.-Iran negotiations underway in Pakistan

Reuters via MarketScreener: U.S., Iran leave door open to dialogue after tense Islamabad talks

Reuters via MarketScreener: Iran says no date set for next round of negotiations with U.S.

Axios: Iran offers U.S. deal to reopen strait but postpone nuclear talks

Event 2

Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?

GeopoliticsContract · YESResolves May 31, 2026OpenHigh confidence

+81c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 81%

Naly Top Answer YES 99%
Trade on Polymarket →

Vance was publicly named as the delegation head and AP says he led 21 hours of talks, leaving mostly definition risk.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Axios said before the talks that Vance would head the U.S. delegation, and AP later said he led 21 hours of talks in Islamabad.

↓

Effect Effect: That collapses most of the uncertainty around whether Vance personally had a diplomatic meeting with Iran; the remaining debate is mostly definitional.

↓

Projection Projection: If the market accepts ordinary diplomatic usage, the YES side should move much closer to certainty before May 31, 2026.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Axios reported on April 8, 2026 that Vance would lead the U.S. negotiating team for the Iran talks in Islamabad.
▲ | Axios reported on April 11, 2026 that the U.S. delegation was headed by Vice President JD Vance during the face-to-face meetings.
▲ | AP reported that Vance led the U.S. delegation during 21 hours of talks that ended without a deal, which is strong evidence of an actual meeting rather than a planned one.
▲ | Axios reported on April 19, 2026 that Vance was expected to lead another round of talks, reinforcing that officials themselves viewed him as the diplomatic principal.
▼ | The main residual risk is that the contract may require a narrower format than a mediated negotiating session involving multiple principals.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 19% YES from the market quote before fully integrating the public record of Vance’s participation.

Positive update: Pre-meeting and post-meeting reporting both identify Vance as the U.S. lead in direct talks with Iranian officials.

Negative update: Contract wording could still create a small chance that the reported session is judged non-qualifying.

Naly estimate: 99% YES, which maps to a 99c fair price on the same binary contract.

Alternative explanation: The alternative explanation is that traders are focusing on the exact form of the encounter, for example whether a trilateral or mediator-hosted negotiation counts as Vance having a diplomatic meeting with Iran.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We would likely be wrong only if the settlement standard demands a narrower bilateral format than the public reports describe, or if the oracle excludes the Islamabad session because of how participants were seated, mediated, or officially characterized.

Fresh Checks

Axios: Vance to lead U.S. delegation at peace talks with Iran in Islamabad

Axios: Direct U.S.-Iran negotiations underway in Pakistan

AP: US and Iran end 21-hour ceasefire talks without agreement before Vance departs Pakistan

Axios: Trump says he'll send negotiators to Pakistan, Iran suspects trap

Event 3

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

ForecastContract · YESResolves December 31, 2026OpenMedium confidence

+28c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 72%

Naly Top Answer NO 55%
Trade on Polymarket →

The market treats delay as the default, but concrete IPO-prep signals make an actual 2026 listing more plausible than 28% odds.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Reuters says OpenAI is discussing retail IPO allocation, may file as soon as H2 2026, and is restructuring key partnership terms while sitting on a fresh $122 billion capital raise.

↓

Effect Effect: Those are not generic “someday” signals; they are concrete readiness markers that make a live 2026 listing path more plausible than the market’s 28% implied IPO chance.

↓

Projection Projection: If OpenAI can stabilize growth and governance while converting the new capital and broader cloud flexibility into a cleaner public-company story, the NO side on this contract should grind higher through 2026.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Reuters reported on April 8, 2026 that OpenAI plans to reserve IPO shares for retail investors and may file with regulators as soon as the second half of 2026.
▲ | OpenAI announced on March 31, 2026 that it closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, which gives it scale but also pushes management toward public-market readiness.
▲ | OpenAI announced on April 27, 2026 that Microsoft’s license is now non-exclusive and that OpenAI can serve products across cloud providers, a simplification that can make an IPO story easier to underwrite.
▼ | Reuters reported on April 27, 2026 that OpenAI missed user and revenue targets, which is a real drag on timing and the main reason this is only a slight answer flip.
▲ | Reuters analysis on April 23, 2026 still grouped OpenAI with the marquee 2026 IPO wave, suggesting public-market expectations remain live rather than dormant.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 72% YES from the market quote, which implies traders still see “not IPO in 2026” as the default outcome.

Positive update: Retail-allocation planning, possible H2 filing, partnership simplification, and a giant new funding round all point toward active IPO preparation rather than passivity.

Negative update: Revenue misses, user-growth slowdown, execution risk, and the broader software-IPO tape all argue against treating a 2026 debut as close to certain.

Naly estimate: 45% YES, which maps to a 45c fair price on the same binary contract and leaves NO as our top answer at 55%.

Alternative explanation: The alternative explanation is that the market is correctly treating private-company inertia, governance work, and volatile IPO conditions as stronger forces than management’s preparatory signals, so the public hints never turn into a completed 2026 listing.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We would likely be wrong if OpenAI posts more revenue or user misses, delays any confidential filing process, runs into governance or partnership complications, or if a market-specific timing or oracle rule makes the path to a 2026 resolution narrower than the headline suggests.

Fresh Checks

Reuters via Investing.com: OpenAI will reserve portion of IPO shares for retail investors, CFO tells CNBC

Reuters via Investing.com: Analysis, biggest IPO wave in history promises $3 trillion in value

Reuters via Investing.com: OpenAI falls short of revenue and user targets as it races toward IPO

OpenAI: The next phase of the Microsoft OpenAI partnership

Conclusion

The next watchpoints after May 3, 2026 are concrete. For the two Iran contracts, the catalyst is any oracle-level clarification about whether mediated Islamabad talks count as diplomatic meetings, plus any second-round confirmation that further normalizes the first session as bona fide diplomacy. For OpenAI, watch for a formal H2 filing signal, governance cleanup, or another revenue wobble; those three catalysts will determine whether the market should keep favoring delay or flip toward an actual 2026 listing.

FAQ

Why are the two Iran contracts Naly’s strongest disagreements?

Because the public record already describes face-to-face Islamabad talks involving the relevant U.S. principals, so the remaining risk looks mostly like settlement wording rather than genuine uncertainty about whether diplomacy occurred.

How should readers interpret prices like 18c YES or 72c YES?

Those quotes are both entry prices and rough market-implied probabilities for a $1 binary contract. A Naly estimate such as 99% YES maps to a 99c fair price on that same side.

Why is the OpenAI IPO call less aggressive than the Iran diplomacy calls?

OpenAI has real timing risks, including revenue misses and governance complexity, so the disagreement is only a slight answer flip. The case is that IPO-prep signals are strong enough to make a 2026 listing more plausible than the market’s current pricing implies.

Methodology

We start from Polymarket’s implied prior on the quoted side, convert that quote into cents on a $1 binary contract, and then update the prior with fresh reporting, official statements, and contract-specific settlement risk. We prefer answer flips over same-side confidence tweaks because the goal is to identify where the market likely picked the wrong winner, not merely the wrong margin. Our calibration, wins, losses, and Brier history are published at /track-record, with deeper context at /predictions/scorecard and /methodology.

Disclaimer

This article is probabilistic research for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, not a solicitation to trade, and not a guarantee of contract resolution or market timing.