Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 22, 2026

TL;DROn May 22, 2026, Naly’s clearest finance disagreement is private-Polymarket euphoria: Anduril YES trades at 66c and SpaceX YES at 74c, but we price those same June 30 threshold contracts at 18c and 30c. The sharpest reason is calendar compression: fresh financing anchors sit well below the targets, while the remaining window is too short for another step-function repricing.

Polymarket is pricing a rapid second leg higher in late-stage private valuations. We think that overstates how quickly private-market marks usually move after a fresh financing event or IPO filing resets the anchor. In both cases below, the market is not merely optimistic. It is assuming an unusually fast repricing path in a narrow window ending June 30, 2026.

Key Takeaways

Naly’s biggest answer flip is Anduril: market YES 66% vs Naly YES 18%, which means market NO 34% vs Naly NO 82%.

SpaceX is also an answer flip: market YES 74% vs Naly YES 30%, or market NO 26% vs Naly NO 70%.

In both contracts, the main disagreement is not direction of long-term business quality; it is whether a new valuation mark can jump fast enough before June 30, 2026.

Fresh financing and filing anchors matter more than hype when the resolution window is only weeks long.

2 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?

YES above $90B by June 30, 2026 Resolves July 1, 2026 Unresolved as of May 22, 2026 82% confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 66%

Naly Top Answer NO 82%

Max Payout if Correct +66c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: A fresh $61B priced round on May 13, 2026 leaves too much distance to $90B for such a short follow-on window.

Event Snapshot

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?

YES above $2.0T by June 30, 2026 Resolves July 1, 2026 Unresolved as of May 22, 2026 87% confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 74%

Naly Top Answer NO 70%

Max Payout if Correct +74c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The IPO filing anchors valuation near, not clearly above, $2T while losses, capex, and governance discount widen the odds of landing below the threshold.

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30?

ForecastContract · YES above $90B by June 30, 2026Resolves July 1, 2026Unresolved as of May 22, 202682% confidence

+66c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 66%

Naly Top Answer NO 82%
Trade on Polymarket →

A fresh $61B priced round on May 13, 2026 leaves too much distance to $90B for such a short follow-on window.

Causal Chain

Cause A fresh priced round on May 13, 2026 set Anduril’s valuation at $61 billion, creating a new hard anchor rather than a vague rumor-based mark.

↓

Effect Once a financing round clears, the next mark usually requires either another transaction, a major secondary repricing, or an extraordinary operating catalyst strong enough to reset buyer willingness almost immediately.

↓

Projection With only weeks from May 22, 2026 to June 30, 2026, the path from $61 billion to above $90 billion looks too steep for base-case resolution odds.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Reuters reported on May 13, 2026 that Anduril raised $5 billion at a $61 billion valuation, which is the freshest public valuation anchor.
▲ | A jump from $61 billion to above $90 billion requires roughly a 48% increase in less than seven weeks.
▲ | Private-market valuations can move fast, but step-ups of that size usually need a new priced transaction, not just enthusiasm about the last one.
▲ | Defense-tech appetite is real, especially with autonomy and drone demand rising, but strong sector narrative does not automatically produce a second repricing inside the same quarter.
▲ | The closer the calendar gets to June 30, 2026 without a new financing event, the more the contract becomes a pure timing bet rather than a quality bet on Anduril.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: Start from the market’s 66% YES because that is where current crowd consensus sits.

Positive update: Strong defense-tech demand and Anduril’s ability to double from $30.5 billion to $61 billion in under a year keep a non-trivial path open.

Negative update: The May 13, 2026 financing round is a fresh price discovery event, and fresh anchors tend to reduce, not increase, near-term uncertainty about what buyers just paid.

Naly estimate: 18% YES, which maps to 18c fair value on YES and 82c fair value on NO.

Alternative explanation: The bullish case is that Anduril has become a scarcity asset in defense AI, so the last priced round could already be stale. If strategic demand, secondary-market appetite, or a major government catalyst accelerates immediately, a valuation overshoot can happen faster than normal private-market pacing would suggest.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if a new financing, aggressive secondary clearing price, or public evidence of a major contract-driven repricing appears before June 30, 2026. We would also be wrong if the market is effectively front-running a near-certain transaction already in motion but not yet publicly disclosed.

Fresh Checks

Reuters: U.S. defense firm Anduril raises $5 billion, doubling valuation to $61 billion

TechCrunch: Anduril raises $5B, doubles valuation to $61B

Anduril: Announces $5B Series H Raise

Axios: Anduril raising $4 billion at a $60 billion valuation

Event 2

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?

ForecastContract · YES above $2.0T by June 30, 2026Resolves July 1, 2026Unresolved as of May 22, 202687% confidence

+74c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 74%

Naly Top Answer NO 70%
Trade on Polymarket →

The IPO filing anchors valuation near, not clearly above, $2T while losses, capex, and governance discount widen the odds of landing below the threshold.

Causal Chain

Cause SpaceX’s public filing on May 20, 2026 shifted the debate from rumor and private chatter to a disclosed valuation target with disclosed financial strain.

↓

Effect Once investors can see losses, capex intensity, and governance concentration, the probability of pricing friction rises even if demand remains strong.

↓

Projection That means the path to a valuation hitting above $2.0 trillion by June 30, 2026 is narrower than a 74% YES market implies.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Reuters reported on May 21, 2026 that SpaceX is aiming to raise at a valuation nearing $2 trillion, which is close to the threshold but not the same as clearly crossing above it.
▲ | The SEC S-1 says SpaceX had an accumulated deficit of $41.31 billion as of March 31, 2026.
▲ | Reuters also highlighted a $4.28 billion loss in the three months ended March 31, 2026, along with very heavy AI and Starship-related spending.
▲ | SpaceX’s connectivity business is strong, but the filing itself says long-term growth is highly dependent on Starship execution and broader AI expansion.
▼ | A market pricing 74% YES is effectively assuming that enthusiasm, scarcity, and Musk premium overwhelm both threshold risk and late-stage bookbuilding discipline.
▲ | Near-$2T is not the same as above $2T; threshold contracts are sensitive to that distinction.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: Start from the market’s 74% YES because investor enthusiasm is clearly high and liquidity is deep.

Positive update: Scarcity value, Starlink profitability, and the scale of the IPO support a serious shot at an exceptional valuation.

Negative update: The filing exposed heavy losses, huge capex, and governance concentration, all of which can cap pricing even when a deal is oversubscribed.

Naly estimate: 30% YES, which maps to 30c fair value on YES and 70c fair value on NO.

Alternative explanation: The bullish case is that SpaceX is not being valued on conventional earnings at all. If public investors decide Starlink alone justifies a massive premium and treat Starship plus AI as free upside, the deal could clear above $2.0 trillion despite financial strain.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if order-book demand proves so extreme that underwriters can push pricing above the psychological threshold without meaningful resistance. A sharp Starship milestone, stronger-than-expected institutional appetite, or additional favorable disclosure before pricing could also invalidate our caution.

Fresh Checks

Reuters analysis: SpaceX IPO bets $2 trillion on Musk’s ambitious rockets-to-AI vision

Reuters: SpaceX’s road to landmark IPO filing

SEC S-1 filing for Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

Axios: SpaceX not the behemoth everyone thought

Conclusion

The watchpoints before June 30, 2026 are concrete: any new Anduril financing or secondary repricing, and any SpaceX pricing guidance that moves from near-$2 trillion to clearly above it. Until those catalysts appear, we think Polymarket is paying too much for late-stage valuation momentum and too little for timing risk.

Methodology

Naly’s finance roundups do not ask whether a company is good. We ask whether the market-implied probability on a specific contract is misaligned with the causal path required before resolution. That means anchoring on the freshest public valuation evidence, timing constraints, and threshold sensitivity, then comparing market-implied odds with our fair-value estimate. For historical calibration, see Naly’s track record.

Disclaimer

This article is for information and research discussion only, not investment advice or a solicitation to trade securities or prediction contracts. Markets can move on new disclosures, deal terms, secondary transactions, or resolution-rule nuances after publication on May 22, 2026.