Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 23, 2026

TL;DROn June 23, 2026, Naly’s biggest breaks with Polymarket are two binary markets priced as slight YES favorites: another pandemic before GTA VI at 51c YES and GPT-6 before GTA VI at 53c YES. We think both should trade NO, with roughly 99c and 95c fair value, because the trigger evidence is thin while Rockstar’s release clock is now clearly dated.

Key Takeaways

Naly sees both selected contracts as answer flips, not just same-side confidence tweaks.

The sharpest disagreement is the pandemic market: Polymarket leans YES at 51c, while we think the better framing is NO near 99%.

The GPT-6 market looks too eager to extrapolate AI release cadence from hype rather than official product signals.

In both cases, the market appears to overweight narrative optionality and underweight hard calendar constraints plus missing trigger evidence.

2 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

Another pandemic before GTA VI?

Another pandemic before GTA VI Resolves July 31, 2026 Open 97/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 51%

Naly Top Answer NO 99%

Max Payout if Correct +49c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market treats outbreak risk like pandemic risk, but WHO’s latest emergency posture still falls far short of a new global pandemic trigger.

Event Snapshot

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

GPT-6 released before GTA VI Resolves July 31, 2026 Open 89/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 53%

Naly Top Answer NO 95%

Max Payout if Correct +47c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Traders appear to price AI launch momentum, but official OpenAI releases still center on GPT-5.5 and adjacent updates, not a named GPT-6 launch.

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

Another pandemic before GTA VI?

ForecastContract · Another pandemic before GTA VIResolves July 31, 2026Open97/100 confidence

+49c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 51%

Naly Top Answer NO 99%
Trade on Polymarket →

The quoted 51c market price is for the YES side, meaning a buyer pays 51 cents for a contract that returns $1 only if another pandemic arrives before GTA VI; that 51c is also roughly the market-implied 51% probability for this binary. Naly’s separate estimate puts the YES side near 1%, or a 1c fair price on that same contract. This is an answer flip: Polymarket’s top answer is YES, while ours is NO. A YES buyer at 51c can make at most 49c if correct, but the fair-value edge we see is on NO, where a 49c entry maps to a 99c fair value in our model.

Causal Chain

Cause WHO’s current emergency posture shows serious outbreaks, but not a new pandemic declaration or equivalent global spread threshold.

↓

Effect Traders may be collapsing any scary infectious-disease headline into pandemic odds, overstating the chance that a localized emergency becomes a worldwide resolution event in time.

↓

Projection With GTA VI now officially scheduled for November 19, 2026, the remaining window is finite and requires a fast escalation that current evidence does not support.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | WHO said on May 19, 2026 that it declared a public health emergency of international concern over Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, which is materially weaker than declaring a pandemic.
▲ | WHO’s Ebola situation page confirms a May 2026 outbreak, but it remains a regional emergency with no vaccine for that species and no sign of worldwide spread on the evidence cited.
▼ | Markets often overreact to outbreak salience because pandemic memories from COVID still compress distinct risk categories into one mental bucket.
▲ | The contract’s headline is emotionally vivid, which can support speculative YES flow even when the resolution bar is much higher than “bad health news.”
▲ | Rockstar’s official launch schedule gives the market a real comparison clock instead of an indefinite horizon.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: Start from the market-implied 51% YES.

Positive update: Cross-border Ebola and ongoing health-system stress keep a non-zero tail risk alive.

Negative update: WHO’s own language still centers on a PHEIC and outbreak response, not a global pandemic trajectory.

Naly estimate: 1% YES, implying 99% NO.

Alternative explanation: One reason the market could sit near even money is that traders may expect resolution language broader than a formal WHO pandemic declaration, or may believe another pathogen could emerge suddenly and leapfrog current surveillance. That view is possible, but it requires more than the present evidence shows.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We would be wrong if an existing outbreak escaped containment quickly across multiple regions, or if a new respiratory pathogen produced unmistakable global spread in the next few months. The key failure mode in our view is underestimating how quickly a low-base-rate health event can reprice once cross-border transmission accelerates.

Fresh Checks

WHO Director-General’s address to the 79th World Health Assembly, May 19, 2026

WHO: Ebola outbreak - DRC 2026

WHO: Six years after COVID-19's global alarm

Rockstar Games: Grand Theft Auto VI is now set to launch November 19, 2026

Event 2

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

ForecastContract · GPT-6 released before GTA VIResolves July 31, 2026Open89/100 confidence

+47c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 53%

Naly Top Answer NO 95%
Trade on Polymarket →

The quoted 53c market price is for the YES side, so a trader pays 53 cents for a binary contract that returns $1 only if GPT-6 is released before GTA VI; that price also implies roughly 53% market probability on YES. Naly’s estimate is 5% for that same YES side, or a 5c fair price. This is another answer flip: the market’s top answer is YES, while ours is NO. A YES buyer at 53c can earn at most 47c if correct, but the fair-value edge we see is on NO, where a 47c entry compares with a 95c fair value in our framework.

Causal Chain

Cause OpenAI’s official release stream still emphasizes GPT-5.5, GPT-5.5 Instant, and product-layer updates rather than a named GPT-6 launch.

↓

Effect Traders may be extrapolating from rapid AI iteration and competitive pressure, but cadence alone does not guarantee a public release under a specific model name before the deadline.

↓

Projection With Rockstar’s date now explicitly November 19, 2026, the market still has time, but the evidence gap on GPT-6 branding and launch readiness remains large enough that YES looks overpriced.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | OpenAI’s official news page on June 23, 2026 still highlights product and platform updates rather than any GPT-6 announcement.
▲ | OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 launch materials position GPT-5.5 as the current frontier workhorse, including upcoming API availability, suggesting the company is still monetizing and operationalizing that generation.
▲ | OpenAI’s model release notes, updated in June 2026, discuss GPT-5.5 Instant and retirement schedules for older models, again without a GPT-6 release note.
▲ | Markets often confuse “a stronger model is likely in development” with “a publicly named release is imminent.” Those are different propositions.
▼ | Naming risk matters: even if OpenAI ships meaningful capability upgrades, they may not arrive under the exact GPT-6 label required by the contract.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: Start from the market-implied 53% YES.

Positive update: OpenAI moves quickly, and AI competition can compress launch cycles.

Negative update: Official channels show active GPT-5.5 rollout and housekeeping, not pre-release signaling for GPT-6.

Naly estimate: 5% YES, implying 95% NO.

Alternative explanation: The market may be betting that OpenAI prefers surprise launches and that a flagship model can appear with little public runway. That scenario is not impossible, especially in a fast-moving AI race, but it still needs stronger evidence than “the company ships often.”

What Would Make Us Wrong

We would be wrong if OpenAI has an internal launch-ready model already slated for a near-term public debut, or if management chooses to accelerate naming and release timing for competitive reasons. The core risk to our call is underestimating how little advance signaling OpenAI may need before a major release.

Fresh Checks

OpenAI News

OpenAI: Introducing GPT-5.5

OpenAI Help Center: Model Release Notes

Rockstar Games: Grand Theft Auto VI is now set to launch November 19, 2026

Conclusion

The watchpoints ahead are concrete. On the pandemic contract, the catalysts are any shift from contained regional emergency toward broad international spread, plus any change in WHO language that narrows the gap between outbreak and pandemic. On the GPT-6 contract, the catalysts are official OpenAI release notes, product pages, API availability, or executive signaling that moves the question from rumor to named launch. Until those arrive, we think both markets are still pricing possibility more aggressively than probability.

Methodology

Naly’s June 23, 2026 mispricing roundups compare the market’s current cents price on a binary contract with our fair-value estimate on that same side, then ask whether the market is misreading the causal chain between new evidence and the final resolution condition. We care less about headline volume than about whether the newest facts actually move the resolution odds. Our longer-term calibration work is tracked at Naly Track Record.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and reflects Naly’s probabilistic view as of June 23, 2026. It is not investment advice, does not guarantee outcomes, and can be wrong if new information changes the causal picture or if contract resolution details differ from market shorthand.