Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Finance Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 1, 2026

TL;DRNaly’s clearest June 1, 2026 finance disagreement with Polymarket is crude oil volatility: the market still prices WTI hitting $100 at 56c YES and hitting $80 at 52c YES, while we price those same outcomes at just 26c and 24c. Our sharpest reason is that peace-talk headlines are easing the extreme tail risk while disrupted flows still keep a mid-range floor under prices.

Polymarket’s June WTI contracts are not logically inconsistent because both the upside and downside thresholds can resolve YES in the same month. But taken together, they show a market still paying up for a very wide range. We think that range is too wide for June 1, 2026 conditions. A cents quote like 56c YES is both the current entry price and roughly the market-implied probability on a $1 binary contract; our 26% YES estimate implies a 26c fair price on that same contract.

Key Takeaways

We disagree with Polymarket on both selected WTI tail contracts and prefer NO on each.

The strongest causal reason is range compression: diplomacy is trimming the panic-premium on the upside while ongoing supply disruption still supports a floor above the downside trigger.

The market is still anchored to April’s crisis volatility even though late-May price action has retraced materially.

For June 1, 2026, we see more probability mass in a noisy middle band than in either $100 or $80 extremes.

2 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?

YES Resolves July 1, 2026 Open High confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 56%

Naly Top Answer NO 74%

Max Payout if Correct +56c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market still pays for a renewed war spike, but spot WTI has retreated into the low $90s and peace-talk headlines make an immediate retest of $100 less likely than the market implies.

Event Snapshot

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?

YES Resolves July 1, 2026 Open High confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 52%

Naly Top Answer NO 76%

Max Payout if Correct +52c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market is also paying for a fast peace-deal collapse in prices, but physical supply remains disrupted enough that a full slide to $80 still looks overstated.

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?

MarketsContract · YESResolves July 1, 2026OpenHigh confidence

+56c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 56%

Naly Top Answer NO 74%
Trade on Polymarket →

The market still pays for a renewed war spike, but spot WTI has retreated into the low $90s and peace-talk headlines make an immediate retest of $100 less likely than the market implies.

Causal Chain

Cause Peace-talk progress between Washington and Tehran has already removed part of the panic premium that pushed oil higher in April.

↓

Effect Even with Hormuz still impaired, traders now have a credible reopening path, which caps how often short-covering should extend into a fresh $100 print.

↓

Projection Unless negotiations break hard or shipping disruption worsens abruptly, June is more likely to spend time in a volatile but sub-$100 band than to revisit the crisis high.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | EIA’s daily prices page showed WTI at $92.65 on the May 28, 2026 close, materially below the $100 trigger.
▲ | Reuters reported WTI settled at $88.68 on May 28, 2026 as traders leaned into possible U.S.-Iran deal progress.
▼ | Reuters also reported on June 1, 2026 that WTI rebounded to about $102.59, but that move still depended on unresolved conflict risk rather than restored physical tightness.
▲ | OPEC+’s June output hike was described by Reuters as largely symbolic while Hormuz constraints persist, which means supply stress remains real but does not automatically force a fresh upside breakout every session.
▲ | EIA’s May 12, 2026 STEO expects higher prices in May and June, but also frames the main driver as disrupted inventories rather than a guaranteed continuous squeeze to new highs.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: Start from the market’s 56% YES / 44% NO split.

Positive update: Persistent supply disruption, delayed normalization of shipping, and a still-tight physical market keep the upside tail alive.

Negative update: Late-May price retracement, visible deal talks, and the market’s failure to hold the earlier spike reduce the odds of a June touch at $100.

Naly estimate: 26% YES, 74% NO.

Alternative explanation: The cleanest bull case is that the market is not overpricing volatility at all; it is simply respecting the fact that one military or shipping headline can gap crude several dollars overnight. If talks fail and insurers pull back again, $100 can print before fundamentals have time to matter.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if diplomacy stalls decisively in early June 2026 and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz deteriorates again rather than stabilizes. A confirmed breakdown in talks, fresh strikes on export infrastructure, or evidence that physical barrels cannot move despite nominal OPEC+ quotas would reopen the path to a fast $100 touch.

Fresh Checks

EIA daily prices: WTI at $92.65 on the May 28, 2026 close

Reuters: Oil settles 5% lower as investors await U.S.-Iran peace deal updates

Reuters: Trump says Iran deal is largely negotiated, but Hormuz terms remain disputed

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, released May 12, 2026

Event 2

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?

MarketsContract · YESResolves July 1, 2026OpenHigh confidence

+52c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 52%

Naly Top Answer NO 76%
Trade on Polymarket →

The market is also paying for a fast peace-deal collapse in prices, but physical supply remains disrupted enough that a full slide to $80 still looks overstated.

Causal Chain

Cause Traders are extrapolating that any Iran deal and partial Hormuz reopening will quickly crush crude.

↓

Effect But the physical market is still digesting lost barrels, constrained traffic, and slower normalization than headline diplomacy alone suggests.

↓

Projection That combination can pull WTI off the highs without necessarily creating enough downside force to reach an $80 print during June.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | EIA said in its May 2026 STEO that the Strait of Hormuz would likely not return to pre-conflict flow levels until later in 2026.
▲ | EIA also said disrupted production leads to large inventory draws in May and June, limiting downward price pressure even as flows start to recover.
▲ | Reuters reported that OPEC+’s June quota increase remains largely on paper while Gulf supply is constrained, which weakens the case for a fast oversupply drop.
▼ | Reuters reported WTI at $102.59 on June 1, 2026 after a rebound from the late-May selloff, showing that upside risk has not fully washed out.
▲ | Even the bearish May 28, 2026 price break only took WTI to $88.68, still well above the $80 trigger.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: Start from the market’s 52% YES / 48% NO split.

Positive update: Peace-deal momentum and some tanker traffic returning make a downside extension plausible.

Negative update: Inventory draws, partial rather than full shipping recovery, and still-limited physical supply make a full slide to $80 less likely than a retreat that stalls above it.

Naly estimate: 24% YES, 76% NO.

Alternative explanation: The bearish case says the market is correctly pricing a rapid decompression trade. If Washington and Tehran lock in a durable agreement and shipping insurance normalizes quickly, oil could gap lower on positioning alone, with weak demand amplifying the move.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if a formal ceasefire framework is approved quickly in early June 2026, tanker traffic normalizes faster than expected, and macro demand data weaken at the same time. That would remove the supply floor and make an $80 washout much more attainable.

Fresh Checks

Reuters: OPEC+ agrees third oil output quota hike, but physical impact is limited

Reuters: Trump says he will soon decide on Iran deal and demands Hormuz reopening

AP: Trump has not yet decided whether to move forward with the Iran deal

EIA daily prices and petroleum market snapshot

Conclusion

For June 1, 2026, our highest-conviction finance view is that Polymarket is overpaying for both opposite WTI tails at once. The next watchpoints are concrete: approval or rejection of the U.S.-Iran framework, actual shipping normalization through the Strait of Hormuz, the June 7 OPEC+ meeting, and whether spot WTI can hold below the low-$90s or reclaim triple digits on physical tightness rather than headline noise.

Methodology

Naly’s finance roundups compare Polymarket’s live contract price with our own fair-value estimate built from current evidence, base rates, and explicit causal updates. We focus on whether the market is mispricing the path from cause to effect, not just whether a headline sounds bullish or bearish. Our public scoring and resolved-history framework is documented at /track-record.

Disclaimer

This article is market analysis, not investment advice. Prediction markets and commodity-linked narratives can move sharply on breaking geopolitical news, liquidity gaps, and contract-specific rules. Prices, probabilities, and fair values in this roundup are point-in-time judgments as of June 1, 2026.