Daily Market Mispricings: 3 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 7, 2026

TL;DROn May 7, 2026, Naly’s strongest flips are Donald Trump’s China trip and a U.S.-Iran diplomatic meeting: Polymarket prices both YES contracts at 23c, but we mark them 86c and 80c. Our sharpest reason is process visibility. Once trips and talks move onto an official scheduling track, cancellation risk matters less than the market still implies, creating unusually large binary mispricings.

Key Takeaways

Trump’s China-trip contract and the U.S.-Iran meeting contract are both priced at 23c YES, but our fair values are 86c and 80c because official scheduling and mediator-backed diplomacy create more path dependence than the market is pricing.

The Strategy market is an answer flip for a different reason: traders still anchor to the old never-sell narrative even after management explicitly normalized a small tactical Bitcoin sale.

The biggest hidden variable in these contracts is contract wording, not headline tone: arrival date mechanics matter for China, in-person qualification matters for Iran, and any sale counts for Strategy.

The next catalysts are concrete, not abstract: a White House itinerary, an acknowledged in-person U.S.-Iran session, and any Strategy filing, treasury update, or on-chain evidence of a token BTC sale.

3 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?

YES Resolves May 31, 2026 Open 93/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 77%

Naly Top Answer YES 86%

Max Payout if Correct +77c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Official trip planning is advanced enough that cancellation risk looks overstated.

Event Snapshot

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

YES Resolves May 15, 2026 Open 92/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 77%

Naly Top Answer YES 80%

Max Payout if Correct +77c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Written proposals and a compressed response window raise the odds of a qualifying in-person meeting.

Event Snapshot

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

YES Resolves July 1, 2026 Open 79/100 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 74%

Naly Top Answer YES 64%

Max Payout if Correct +74c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market still treats a sale as taboo even after management opened the door to a small symbolic one.

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?

GeopoliticsContract · YESResolves May 31, 2026Open93/100 confidence

+77c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 77%

Naly Top Answer YES 86%
Trade on Polymarket →

Official trip planning is advanced enough that cancellation risk looks overstated.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: The White House publicly fixed a May 14-15 Beijing visit and current Iran diplomacy is being timed around that trip rather than against it.

↓

Effect Effect: Once a state visit is locked into both governments’ planning calendars, the base case shifts from maybe happens to happens unless a new shock forces cancellation.

↓

Projection Projection: Unless Iran fighting re-escalates hard enough to pin Trump in Washington or the itinerary slips into a different ET date, the contract should move toward YES.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Reuters reported on March 25 that the White House said Trump’s meeting with Xi would take place in Beijing on May 14 and 15, which is stronger than vague travel chatter because it reflects a named official schedule.
▲ | Reuters reported again on May 7 that Trump is set to meet Xi in May, suggesting the visit still sits inside the administration’s live policy calendar rather than in a stale planning memo.
▲ | Axios reported on May 6 that the White House wants a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran by the time Trump wraps his China trip on May 15, 2026, which implies the trip is being used as a policy deadline, not treated as disposable.
▲ | Reuters reported on April 14 that Eric Trump would accompany the president on the state visit, another clue that the trip had moved beyond a placeholder hold and into fuller travel preparation.
▲ | The market is probably anchoring to the earlier delay caused by the Iran war, but the same conflict now increases the trip’s utility because Beijing is central to trade and Hormuz diplomacy.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 23% YES, matching the market’s quoted May 7, 2026 price on the YES side.

Positive update: Official White House scheduling, continued Reuters reporting that the summit remains on, and Axios reporting that Iran diplomacy is being paced to the trip all raise completion odds sharply.

Negative update: A late security shock or an ET arrival-date mismatch could still push the resolution away from May 14 even if the visit happens broadly as planned.

Naly estimate: 86% YES, or 86c fair value on the YES contract.

Alternative explanation: The market may simply be pricing Trump’s operational unpredictability and the date-specific ET settlement risk more aggressively than the White House schedule deserves.

What Would Make Us Wrong

A fresh Iran escalation, a last-minute postponement, or credible itinerary evidence that Trump lands in China on a different ET date would break the YES thesis quickly.

Fresh Checks

Reuters: U.S. President Trump’s renewed trade war with China

Reuters: Bessent urges China to step up diplomacy on Iran ahead of Trump-Xi summit

Reuters: Trump’s son Eric to join father’s state visit to China

Reuters Connect: Trump to visit China on May 14-15, White House says

Event 2

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

GeopoliticsContract · YESResolves May 15, 2026Open92/100 confidence

+77c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 77%

Naly Top Answer YES 80%
Trade on Polymarket →

Written proposals and a compressed response window raise the odds of a qualifying in-person meeting.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Washington and Tehran are no longer just posturing through headlines; they are exchanging concrete proposal text through Pakistan and narrowing to specific response windows.

↓

Effect Effect: Once both sides are haggling over draft terms instead of debating whether to talk at all, an in-person diplomatic meeting becomes the cheapest way to unblock the next move.

↓

Projection Projection: If Iran delivers a non-rejection response and mediators can convene the principals quickly, the market should reprice toward YES before May 15, 2026.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Reuters reported on May 3 that Iran had received a U.S. response to its latest peace proposal via Pakistan and was reviewing it, which means the channel is active even after earlier public frustration.
▲ | Reuters, citing Axios, reported on May 6 that the White House expects Iranian responses on key points within 48 hours and sees the parties as closer to agreement than at any point since the war began.
▲ | Axios reported later on May 6 that Trump said the U.S. and Iran had good talks over the last 24 hours and that U.S. officials expect a response from Tehran within 24-48 hours.
▲ | Earlier failed travel plans likely taught traders to discount diplomacy, but the contract only needs a qualifying diplomatic meeting, not a final peace deal.
▲ | The contract language matters: indirect in-person meetings via mediators can qualify, which gives the YES side more paths than traders may intuit from cable-news framing.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 23% YES, matching the May 7, 2026 market quote for a qualifying diplomatic meeting by deadline.

Positive update: Written proposals, an active Pakistan channel, and an explicit 24-48 hour response window all point to negotiations entering the stage where a meeting is instrumentally useful.

Negative update: Tehran could stall, or the process could remain remote and therefore fail to satisfy the contract’s in-person requirement.

Naly estimate: 80% YES, or 80c fair value on the YES contract.

Alternative explanation: The market may be right if both sides keep the process at the memo-and-mediator stage and never convert it into a publicly acknowledged in-person meeting before the clock runs out.

What Would Make Us Wrong

If Tehran rejects the current framework, if the next contact stays remote only, or if the parties deliberately avoid a public in-person session, the NO side likely wins.

Fresh Checks

Axios: U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war

Axios: Trump optimistic as U.S. awaits Iran’s response to peace framework

Reuters: U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war

Reuters: Iran says it has received U.S. response to its latest offer for talks

Event 3

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

MarketsContract · YESResolves July 1, 2026Open79/100 confidence

+74c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 74%

Naly Top Answer YES 64%
Trade on Polymarket →

The market still treats a sale as taboo even after management opened the door to a small symbolic one.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Strategy’s capital stack now includes recurring preferred-dividend obligations, and management explicitly said a Bitcoin sale is on the table to fund one.

↓

Effect Effect: Once the company normalizes even a token sale in public, the psychological taboo breaks and the threshold for a qualifying sale collapses.

↓

Projection Projection: A small tactical sale before June 30, 2026 becomes more likely than the market implies because it solves signalling and liquidity questions at once without requiring a strategic retreat from Bitcoin.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Strategy’s May 5 earnings release said the company had $2.21 billion of cash as of March 31, 2026, 818,334 BTC as of May 3, and $692.5 million of cumulative dividends declared and paid on preferred stock to date, showing a real liability stack alongside the treasury story.
▲ | Strategy’s Q1 2026 10-Q says the company may need to sell bitcoin to raise proceeds sufficient to satisfy financial obligations or liquidity needs, including debt service and cash dividend payments on preferred stock.
▲ | The Q1 earnings-call transcript records Michael Saylor saying Strategy will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend, which is the most direct break yet from the old never-sell framing.
▲ | Strategy also reported on April 27 that it had acquired another 3,273 BTC, which matters because a qualifying sale does not require a bearish turn or a shrinking long-term treasury position.
▲ | Traders are likely anchored to brand identity and past rhetoric, but this contract is about one observable action before June 30, 2026, not about Strategy’s long-run philosophy.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 26% YES, matching the May 7, 2026 market price on the YES side.

Positive update: Management’s explicit sale language and the 10-Q liquidity language both materially raise the chance of at least one qualifying transaction.

Negative update: Strategy still has equity, preferred, and reserve-management alternatives, so management may decide not to touch BTC before the deadline.

Naly estimate: 64% YES, or 64c fair value on the YES contract.

Alternative explanation: The market may be right if Saylor used the comment as narrative inoculation only and the company keeps funding dividends through issuance and cash management without selling any BTC by June 30, 2026.

What Would Make Us Wrong

A continued rebound in bitcoin, easy capital markets, and explicit management reassurance that no treasury sale is needed would weaken the YES case materially.

Fresh Checks

Strategy: First Quarter 2026 Financial Results

Strategy 10-Q: Q1 2026 quarterly report

Motley Fool: Strategy Q1 2026 earnings transcript

Strategy: Acquires 3,273 BTC and now holds 818,334 BTC

Conclusion

The near-term watchpoints are unusually concrete. For China, watch for a White House itinerary that clarifies the arrival date mechanics. For Iran, watch whether the 24-48 hour response window converts into a publicly acknowledged in-person session. For Strategy, watch for treasury disclosures, funding decisions, and any on-chain or company-confirmed BTC sale that would satisfy the any-sale threshold before June 30, 2026.

Methodology

We start with the live Polymarket price as a market prior, then rescore the same contract using fresh reporting, official statements, contract wording, and causal path analysis. We separate three things that traders often blur together: the current entry price, the fair cents price implied by our probability, and the max payout if the contract resolves correctly. Readers can audit our resolved calls and calibration on our track record.

Disclaimer

This article is probabilistic research for information purposes only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to trade prediction markets or securities.