KBO predictions for June 3, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

June 3, 2026 KBO board has 2 same-day Polymarket winner markets after official schedule verification. We rank every game by model-versus-market gap, show the market price, Naly estimate, expected-run read, confidence, and linked news checks. The strongest edge is SSG Landers at 67% against the market baseline.

Key Takeaways

The article uses the same mispricing workflow as the finance roundups: market prior, Naly fair value, explicit edge, and a negative-case test for each event.

SSG Landers is the strongest same-day KBO disagreement at 67% Naly probability and +19 pp versus Polymarket.

Every matchup section includes its own Polymarket link, official KBO data references, and related news checks.

Low-confidence edges stay in the article because they are useful for calibration, but they should not be read as strong calls.

2 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

Lotte Giants at Kia Tigers

KIA Tigers WIN Resolves June 3, 2026 high confidence

Polymarket Top Answer Kia Tigers 57%

Naly Top Answer Kia Tigers 70%

Max Payout if Correct +43c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: KIA Tigers prices at 57% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 70% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+12 pp).

Event Snapshot

Kiwoom Heroes at SSG Landers

SSG Landers WIN Resolves June 3, 2026 high confidence

Polymarket Top Answer Kiwoom Heroes 53%

Naly Top Answer SSG Landers 67%

Max Payout if Correct +53c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: SSG Landers prices at 48% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 67% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+19 pp).

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

Lotte Giants at Kia Tigers

ForecastContract · KIA Tigers WINResolves June 3, 2026high confidence

+43c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer Kia Tigers 57%

Naly Top Answer Kia Tigers 70%
Trade on Polymarket →

KIA Tigers prices at 57% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 70% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+12 pp).

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Official KBO schedule data keeps Lotte Giants at Kia Tigers in the same-day board, while Polymarket still has a live winner market.

↓

Effect Effect: Official team hitting and pitching tables create an expected-run read of Lotte Giants 3.7, Kia Tigers 5.32.

↓

Projection Projection: KIA Tigers is the article side if the fair-value gap survives lineup and news checks before first pitch.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Expected-run read: KIA Tigers 5.32, Lotte Giants 3.7.
▲ | Polymarket implies 57%; Naly estimates 70%, leaving +12 pp of fair-value gap.
▲ | Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied.
▲ | No high-signal external news item was returned by the configured crawler for this matchup.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 57% market-implied prior.

Positive update: +13 points from schedule-verified expected runs, team run prevention, and side-specific news checks.

Negative update: -1 points for lineup uncertainty, starter volatility, and low-liquidity KBO market noise.

Naly estimate: 70%.

Alternative explanation: Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet.

What Would Make Us Wrong

A late scratch, confirmed starter mismatch, bullpen-rest surprise, or lineup change against KIA Tigers would reduce the edge quickly, especially because this is only a high-confidence call.

Fresh Checks

Polymarket market

Official KBO team hitting table

Official KBO team pitching table

Official KBO schedule

Event 2

Kiwoom Heroes at SSG Landers

ForecastContract · SSG Landers WINResolves June 3, 2026high confidence

+53c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer Kiwoom Heroes 53%

Naly Top Answer SSG Landers 67%
Trade on Polymarket →

SSG Landers prices at 48% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 67% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+19 pp).

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Official KBO schedule data keeps Kiwoom Heroes at SSG Landers in the same-day board, while Polymarket still has a live winner market.

↓

Effect Effect: Official team hitting and pitching tables create an expected-run read of Kiwoom Heroes 4.06, SSG Landers 5.6.

↓

Projection Projection: SSG Landers is the article side if the fair-value gap survives lineup and news checks before first pitch.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Expected-run read: SSG Landers 5.6, Kiwoom Heroes 4.06.
▲ | Polymarket implies 48%; Naly estimates 67%, leaving +19 pp of fair-value gap.
▲ | Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied.
▲ | No high-signal external news item was returned by the configured crawler for this matchup.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 48% market-implied prior.

Positive update: +20 points from schedule-verified expected runs, team run prevention, and side-specific news checks.

Negative update: -1 points for lineup uncertainty, starter volatility, and low-liquidity KBO market noise.

Naly estimate: 67%.

Alternative explanation: Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet.

What Would Make Us Wrong

A late scratch, confirmed starter mismatch, bullpen-rest surprise, or lineup change against SSG Landers would reduce the edge quickly, especially because this is only a high-confidence call.

Fresh Checks

Polymarket market

Official KBO team hitting table

Official KBO team pitching table

Official KBO schedule

Data and source notes

Official KBO team hitting table was used for runs per game and offensive context.

Official KBO team pitching table was used for ERA, WHIP, runs allowed, and strikeout/walk context.

Official KBO schedule data was used to reject stale Polymarket markets that are still marked active after a game has completed.

Polymarket prices were used as the market-implied baseline and section-level market link for each matchup.

News snippets were used as a small adjustment only when they clearly referred to injuries, returns, starters, or availability.

Conclusion

The highest-information checks before first pitch are lineup confirmation, starting-pitcher confirmation, bullpen availability, and whether any injury item changes the expected-run baseline. The article should be judged after settlement by whether the hypothesis identified the right side of the market disagreement, not by whether every low-confidence pick won.

Methodology

We treat Polymarket as the market-implied prior, then update with official KBO schedule, team hitting, team pitching, expected runs, home field, and public news. Each event keeps the same finance-article structure: explicit market disagreement, causal chain, key factors, Bayesian adjustment, alternative explanation, and a wrong-case test. The result is stored for post-game calibration.

Disclaimer

This is a prediction article, not betting advice. The pipeline is built for transparent article production and post-game learning, not automated trading.