Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 26, 2026

TL;DROn May 26, 2026, Naly’s biggest election disagreements are Trump’s “Dumbocrat” weekly contract and Seoul’s mayoral race. Polymarket prices Trump saying it again at 85c YES; we make fair value 48c and lean NO because the key Memorial Day usage was written, not spoken. In Seoul, the market sits at 20c YES on Oh Se-hoon; we price him at 51c after polls snapped to a dead heat.

Polymarket is treating one event as if the outcome is already basically locked and the other as if it is still a long shot. We think both readings are too extreme. In the Trump contract, traders appear to be anchoring on one vivid Memorial Day social post and then over-projecting repetition into the rest of the week, even though the contract depends on a recorded spoken use rather than text alone. In Seoul, the market still reflects an older anti-Oh narrative even as newer polls moved the race into toss-up territory.

Key Takeaways

Trump’s nickname contract looks overpriced because the most recent high-salience use was written on Truth Social, while the same day’s major public speech did not clearly reinforce the verbal case.

Oh Se-hoon at 20c YES looks too cheap for a race that multiple late-May polls now show within the margin of error, with one survey even putting him ahead.

In both cases, we think traders are over-weighting older narrative momentum and under-weighting the latest evidence that changes the causal path to resolution.

These are answer-flip disagreements, not just smaller confidence tweaks: we lean NO on Trump saying it this week and YES on Oh winning Seoul.

2 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week?

YES Resolves May 31, 2026 Open 69 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 85%

Naly Top Answer NO 52%

Max Payout if Correct +15c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Market extrapolates a written Memorial Day post into a spoken weekly hit, but the public-event calendar and the contract mechanics are less favorable than the tape suggests.

Event Snapshot

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

YES Resolves June 3, 2026 Open 82 confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 80%

Naly Top Answer YES 51%

Max Payout if Correct +80c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Market still prices Oh like a clear underdog even though late polls moved the race to statistical parity and one recent survey showed him ahead.

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week?

ForecastContract · YESResolves May 31, 2026Open69 confidence

+15c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 85%

Naly Top Answer NO 52%
Trade on Polymarket →

Market extrapolates a written Memorial Day post into a spoken weekly hit, but the public-event calendar and the contract mechanics are less favorable than the tape suggests.

Causal Chain

Cause The market saw Trump use “Dumocrats” in a high-visibility Memorial Day Truth Social post and treated that as proof of an active rhetorical habit.

↓

Effect But the contract path depends on another qualifying spoken use during the rest of the week, and his same-day Arlington remarks were much more ceremonial than combative.

↓

Projection That lowers the true repeat probability versus the market’s near-certainty pricing and pushes the contract back toward a coin flip rather than a lock.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Trump did use “Dumocrats” in a Memorial Day Truth Social post on May 25, 2026, which supports the idea that the nickname is live in his message mix.
▲ | The White House also published and livestreamed his Arlington appearance on May 25, 2026, giving traders a same-day public event to inspect for qualifying spoken usage.
▲ | Coverage of those remarks described the speech as comparatively restrained and focused on commemoration, which matters because solemn ceremonial settings reduce the odds of another nickname riff.
▲ | Washington Examiner’s schedule note said Arlington was Trump’s only public event on Memorial Day, limiting immediate spoken opportunities after the social post.
▲ | The main bullish case is that Trump has recently adopted the insult and often repeats sticky nicknames once they enter circulation.
▼ | The bearish case is simpler: written use does not automatically create a second spoken use, and one late-week media appearance can disappear quickly if the news agenda shifts.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: Start near 50% for a newly adopted Trump nickname to appear in a given week once it has entered circulation.

Positive update: Memorial Day’s written “Dumocrats” post proves the phrase is top-of-mind and raises repeat odds.

Negative update: Arlington was the day’s major public event, yet reporting on the remarks emphasized memorial themes, not nickname politics; fewer open-mic opportunities means less path to resolution.

Naly estimate: 48% YES, which makes NO 52% the top answer.

Alternative explanation: The market may simply be trading contract mechanics loosely and assuming that once Trump has used the phrase publicly in any form, another qualifying use is highly likely because his communication style is repetitive. If he does one rally hit, one press gaggle aside, or one interview soundbite later in the week, the bearish case collapses fast.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if Trump keeps leaning into the insult outside ceremonial settings over the next several days. A single recorded unscripted remark, campaign-style riff, or interview answer using any listed variant would make the market’s aggressive YES pricing look justified.

Fresh Checks

Salon: Trump’s holiday message targets “Dumocrats”

The White House: Memorial Day at Arlington National Cemetery video, May 25, 2026

The White House: President Trump Participates in a Wreath Laying Ceremony and Delivers Remarks

Washington Examiner: Arlington was Trump’s only public event on Memorial Day

Event 2

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

PoliticsContract · YESResolves June 3, 2026Open82 confidence

+80c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 80%

Naly Top Answer YES 51%
Trade on Polymarket →

Market still prices Oh like a clear underdog even though late polls moved the race to statistical parity and one recent survey showed him ahead.

Causal Chain

Cause Traders appear to be anchored to earlier polling and Seoul’s broader partisan headwind for the People Power Party.

↓

Effect But late-May polling compressed the race dramatically, with multiple surveys showing a margin-of-error contest and one recent poll placing Oh ahead.

↓

Projection Once a race becomes functionally tied, incumbency, name recognition, and independent-voter strength matter more than stale narrative priors, pushing fair odds toward even money rather than 20%.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | CHOSUNBIZ reported a May 19-20 Jowon C&I poll showing Chong Won-o at 43.0% and Oh at 42.6%, a 0.4-point gap inside the margin of error.
▼ | The same poll showed Oh leading independents 38.5% to 16.3%, which is exactly the kind of movable bloc that matters late in a close local race.
▲ | Another CHOSUNBIZ report on an Ace Research poll had the race at 41.7% Chong to 41.6% Oh, effectively tied.
▲ | AJU PRESS reported a ResearchWell poll released May 22 with Oh at 44.8% and Jung Won-o at 42.0%, putting Oh narrowly ahead within the margin of error.
▲ | The bearish case remains real: Seoul party support still leaned Democratic in the CHOSUNBIZ data, and likely-voter screens in one poll favored Chong.
▲ | Even so, an 80% NO market price implies a clear favorite against Oh, while the freshest public evidence points instead to a genuine toss-up.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: Start around 50% for a competitive two-candidate mayoral contest before applying local political conditions.

Positive update: Two late-May polls moved the race into a statistical tie, and one recent survey showed Oh ahead; his independent-voter performance is particularly strong.

Negative update: Seoul’s broader party environment and at least one likely-voter screen still lean against him, which keeps us from moving materially above even.

Naly estimate: 51% YES, making Oh a slight favorite rather than a long shot.

Alternative explanation: The market may be discounting public toplines because it expects Democratic turnout consolidation in the final week, especially if partisan national mood overwhelms candidate-specific advantages. If traders believe late undecideds break disproportionately against the opposition in Seoul, then a sub-50 Oh price would make sense, though 20c still looks too low.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if the late tightening is mostly noise from house effects or transient campaign headlines rather than a durable shift. A fresh likely-voter poll showing a clear Chong lead, or turnout signals that erase Oh’s independent advantage, would justify a sharp move back toward NO.

Fresh Checks

CHOSUNBIZ: Seoul mayoral race tightens as Chong edges Oh within margin of error

CHOSUNBIZ: Chong Won-o and Oh Se-hoon tie in Seoul mayoral race ahead of Korea vote

AJU PRESS: Oh Se-hoon Leads Jung Won-o in Tight Seoul Mayor Race

Korea JoongAng Daily: Oh calls on voters to keep Lee administration in check

Conclusion

The next catalysts are straightforward. For Trump, every public appearance, interview clip, or off-the-cuff remark between now and May 31 matters more than old nickname evidence. For Seoul, the decisive watchpoints are the next poll release, any likely-voter shift, and whether Oh’s independent-voter edge survives into the final pre-election stretch before June 3. In both cases, we think Polymarket is still pricing the old story more heavily than the newest causal evidence.

Methodology

Naly’s election mispricing process starts with the market-implied probability, then re-prices the same contract side using event-specific causal drivers: qualifying resolution mechanics, public schedule density, polling trend direction, likely-voter versus all-voter differences, coalition structure, and whether the newest information changes the actual path to resolution. For our broader calibration history and resolved-call performance, see /track-record.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational and research purposes only, not investment, legal, or financial advice. Prediction markets can move quickly on new information, liquidity gaps, and rule interpretations. Always read the contract resolution criteria and size positions assuming volatility and uncertainty.