Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 28, 2026

TL;DROn June 28, 2026, Naly’s clearest election disagreement is Colorado’s Democratic governor primary: Polymarket prices Phil Weiser at 73c YES, but we mark YES closer to 46c, making NO our top answer at 54%. The sharpest reason is that late statewide polling and low-turnout, unaffiliated-heavy voting look much less favorable to Weiser than activist assembly results suggest.

Key Takeaways

Naly’s only answer flip today is Colorado’s Democratic governor primary, where the market still makes Phil Weiser a strong favorite.

Our model puts Weiser closer to 46% than 73%, which makes NO the higher-probability side at 54%.

The disagreement is causal, not cosmetic: activist delegates and ballot position matter, but late polling, undecided voters, and turnout composition matter more.

If the final unaffiliated-voter wave breaks toward the better-known statewide figure, Michael Bennet, the market’s current YES price looks too rich.

Polymarket’s election board is leaning hardest on activist-signal strength and candidate infrastructure. We think that overweights a March party-assembly result and underweights who actually decides the nomination in the final days: lower-information primary voters, especially unaffiliated Coloradans returning ballots late. In elections, the market is often most fragile when it treats an insider enthusiasm signal as if it were the same thing as a mass-electorate advantage.

Summary Comparison Table

Event | Contract | Market Price | Naly Fair Price | Polymarket Top Answer | Naly Top Answer | Market Components | Naly Components | Component Score | Max Payout if Correct | Fair-Value Edge | Resolves | Result | Confidence | Why We Disagree
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? | YES | 73c YES | 46c YES | YES 73% | NO 54% | Yes 73%, No 27% | Yes 46%, No 54% | 27 | 73c profit buying NO at 27c | +27c on NO / -27c on YES | June 30, 2026 | Open | 70/100 | The market still anchors to delegate dominance, while we think late voter mix and polling make Bennet more live than priced.

1. Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Polymarket’s quoted side here is YES at 73c, which means a trader pays 73 cents now for a contract that pays $1 if Weiser wins, implying roughly a 73% market probability on that same side. Naly’s number is 46c fair value on YES, because our separate estimate puts Weiser’s win probability near 46%. That makes the answer flip explicit: the market’s top answer is YES, while ours is NO at 54%. If you buy NO around 27c and NO is correct, the max payout is 73c profit; that is separate from the fair-value edge, which we estimate at roughly +27c on NO versus current pricing.

Market vs. our view: YES at 73c vs YES at 46c fair price Top answers: Polymarket YES 73% vs Naly NO 54% Component scoring: Market YES 73%, NO 27% | Naly YES 46%, NO 54% | Component score 27 Causal chain

Weiser’s March assembly blowout and first-position ballot optics created a durable favorite narrative.

But late-June public polling shows a much tighter real electorate, and the decisive voters are not the same people as party delegates.

If undecided and late unaffiliated voters break toward name recognition and perceived general-election strength, Bennet can clear the threshold needed to beat a market still priced for Weiser control. Key factors

A late June Public Policy Polling survey reported Weiser at 45%, Bennet at 36%, and 19% undecided, much tighter than a 73% favorite should look two business days before resolution.

That same poll was commissioned by a pro-Weiser super PAC, which matters because even friendly polling only showed a single-digit lead with a meaningful undecided block.

Colorado’s June 2026 primary turnout was still relatively low in the final week, with Axios reporting about 505,538 ballots cast as of June 24, around 11% of registered voters, increasing the importance of late composition shifts.

The Colorado Sun reported about 200,000 already-cast ballots had come from unaffiliated voters, and most processed unaffiliated ballots were choosing the Democratic primary, enlarging the slice of the electorate least tied to assembly politics.

Weiser’s 90% state-assembly support is real, but assembly delegates are an unusually engaged and ideological subset, not a clean proxy for a statewide mail-ballot primary.

Michael Bennet brings broader statewide name recognition and a plausible late-decider case as a sitting U.S. senator, which gives him more upside than a 27% market NO price implies. Bayesian calculation

Base rate: Start from the market’s assembly-and-organization prior of 73% YES because those signals usually matter in low-salience primaries.

Positive update: Weiser’s ballot position, strong activist support, and a late poll lead keep YES live and prevent a collapse below coin-flip territory.

Negative update: The late poll margin is too narrow for a 73c favorite, the undecided share is too large, and the unaffiliated-heavy late electorate is less likely to mirror activist delegates.

Naly estimate: YES 46%, NO 54%. Alternative explanation The market could still be right if assembly strength is acting as a proxy for real field execution rather than just insider enthusiasm. In that version, Weiser’s organizational advantage, ballot placement, and progressive infrastructure are enough to convert undecideds efficiently over the final weekend. What would make us wrong We are wrong if late undecideds break disproportionately toward the candidate already leading in the last public poll, or if Weiser’s field machine turns the low-turnout environment into a delegate-like electorate. A clean Weiser win would mean the market was correctly pricing organizational asymmetry rather than overfitting to insider signals. Fresh checks

The Colorado Sun: Phil Weiser leads Michael Bennet in new poll, with Colorado’s Democratic primary for governor coming down to undecided voters

Colorado Politics: Phil Weiser leading Michael Bennet in Colorado’s Democratic gubernatorial primary, internal poll finds

Axios Denver: Colorado's early vote lags ahead of primary election

Colorado Secretary of State: 2026 Official Primary Election Candidate List

Methodology

Naly’s election mispricing process starts with the live contract price, then re-estimates fair value using public evidence, turnout structure, institutional incentives, and category-specific causal chains. We compare our live calls against resolved outcomes on our track record, where readers can inspect calibration rather than just verdicts.

Conclusion

The practical watchpoint into June 30, 2026 is not whether Weiser has the louder activist case; it is whether late unaffiliated and low-information Democratic-primary voters validate that signal or override it. Ballot-return composition, any last credible poll movement, and campaign evidence about undecided break rates are the catalysts most likely to move this contract from a favorite story to a coin-flip reality.

Disclaimer

This article is for information and research only, not investment, legal, or voting advice. Prediction markets can move on liquidity, hedging, and narrative momentum as well as fundamentals, and Naly’s fair values are probabilistic estimates that may be wrong.