Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 9, 2026

TL;DRNaly most strongly disagrees with Polymarket on two Strait of Hormuz trades: WTI crude LOW $85 in May is priced at 63c YES but looks closer to 30c YES, and a Trump announcement lifting the U.S. blockade is 63c YES versus 38c fair. The sharpest reason is persistence: oil risk premium and unresolved nuclear terms keep normalization slower than the market assumes.

Key Takeaways

Both answer flips come from the same mismatch: traders are pricing headline progress in the Strait of Hormuz faster than physical flows and formal U.S. policy can normalize.

On WTI, the market still treats an $85 print in May as the favorite, but our fair value is much lower because oil can gap down faster than tankers, inventories, and insurance markets can heal.

On the blockade market, the contract needs a specific Trump announcement that the blockade has been lifted; a pause, a draft memorandum, or partial shipping relief does not automatically satisfy that wording.

These are open markets, so the next catalysts are treaty language, verified merchant traffic, fresh inventory data, and any shift in White House wording.

2 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

YES Resolves June 1, 2026 Open High confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 63%

Naly Top Answer NO 70%

Max Payout if Correct +37c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market is treating a headline-driven selloff as if it guarantees a fast enough physical normalization to reach $85 in May.

Event Snapshot

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

YES Resolves June 30, 2026 Open Medium-High confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 63%

Naly Top Answer NO 62%

Max Payout if Correct +37c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market is pricing diplomatic progress as if it already guarantees a formal Trump announcement lifting the blockade.

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?

MarketsContract · YESResolves June 1, 2026OpenHigh confidence

+37c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 63%

Naly Top Answer NO 70%
Trade on Polymarket →

Polymarket's 63c quote is on the YES side, so traders are paying 63 cents for a $1 binary contract that only cashes if WTI trades at $85 or lower at any point in May; our separate 30% YES estimate implies a 30c fair price on that same YES ticket. This is an answer flip, not a same-side trim: the market still favors YES, while we think NO is likelier. A 63c YES ticket offers a maximum 37c payout if it wins, but the fair-value edge is negative 33c on YES, equivalent to a +33c edge on NO.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: The tape is reacting to ceasefire and memorandum headlines faster than tanker routing, insurance, and refinery restocking can actually normalize.

↓

Effect Effect: Even after WTI dropped into the mid-$90s, the remaining downside to an $85 print still likely needs both a real deal and several weeks of cleaner flows.

↓

Projection Projection: Unless a signed agreement quickly clears ship traffic and removes the war premium, May is still more likely to finish without an $85 print than with one.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Reuters reported WTI settled at $95.08 on May 6 after optimism about a possible U.S.-Iran memorandum, showing that a lot of downside has already been pulled forward.
▲ | The same Reuters report quoted Rystad saying shipping normalization has a six-to-eight-week lag even after credible access conditions improve, which is longer than the remaining life of this contract.
▼ | EIA still says the Strait's disruption is keeping a larger risk premium in crude and expects Brent to stay elevated through the second quarter rather than collapse immediately.
▲ | EIA also notes inventories have drawn down and shut-in production returns only gradually, which limits how far crude can sustainably fall on headlines alone.
▲ | The bullish case for YES is real: if a formal deal lands and momentum funds press the move, round-number support near $90 could fail quickly.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 63% YES from the market's current pricing after WTI already fell from triple digits toward the mid-$90s.

Positive update: Once WTI is near $95 instead of $105, another ten-dollar washout to $85 no longer requires an extreme shock.

Negative update: EIA's risk-premium framework, inventory draws, and Reuters-sourced analyst estimates on flow normalization all argue that one more sharp leg lower is still less likely than not inside May.

Naly estimate: 30% YES, which makes NO our top answer at 70%.

Alternative explanation: The market may be trading $85 as a path-dependent overshoot rather than a full-fundamentals forecast. If traders think any signed Iran memorandum instantly triggers CTA selling and forced long liquidation, an intramonth wick to $85 can happen even if end-of-month fundamentals stay tighter.

What Would Make Us Wrong

A formal U.S.-Iran deal, verified convoy traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and another weak U.S. inventory print could combine into exactly that overshoot. If the war premium collapses faster than EIA's gradual-normalization case, $85 can print before the physical market fully heals.

Fresh Checks

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook

EIA global oil market outlook

Reuters: Oil prices slid as U.S.-Iran deal optimism grew

Reuters: Oil stayed above $100 while a deal remained elusive

Event 2

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

ForecastContract · YESResolves June 30, 2026OpenMedium-High confidence

+37c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 63%

Naly Top Answer NO 62%
Trade on Polymarket →

Polymarket's 63c quote is again on the YES side, meaning traders are paying 63 cents for a $1 binary contract that only pays if Donald Trump publicly announces the blockade has been lifted by June 30, 2026; our 38% YES estimate implies a 38c fair price on that same YES ticket. This is another answer flip: Polymarket still prefers YES, while we think NO is slightly more likely. The max payout on a 63c YES ticket is 37c if that specific announcement happens, but the fair-value edge is negative 25c on YES, equivalent to a +25c edge on NO.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: This contract is not about quieter fighting or partial escort operations; it specifically requires Trump to announce that the blockade has been lifted.

↓

Effect Effect: That wording bundles diplomacy, enforcement rollback, and White House messaging into one condition, so operational progress can improve without resolving the bet.

↓

Projection Projection: Unless talks settle enough nuclear and sanctions issues for Trump to give up leverage publicly, the administration is more likely to keep saying "paused" or "under review" than "lifted."

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Reuters reported on May 5 that Trump paused "Project Freedom" while saying the blockade would remain in force, which cuts directly against a near-term YES interpretation.
▲ | Reuters also reported on May 2 that Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait and end the blockade was rejected because core nuclear issues were deferred rather than solved.
▲ | AP reported on May 6 that the administration's messaging pinballed between ceasefire claims and new bombing threats, a sign the policy line is not yet stable enough for a clean lift announcement.
▲ | AP reported on May 9 that U.S. forces were still disabling Iranian tankers trying to breach the blockade, which means enforcement was active even after supposed progress.
▲ | The bullish case for YES is that Pakistan-backed mediation is alive and Trump often prefers a headline declaration once he sees a politically useful framework.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 63% YES from the market's assumption that ongoing talks probably culminate in a formal Trump announcement before June 30.

Positive update: Active mediation, partial ship movement, and Trump's own desire to claim progress all keep an announcement plausible.

Negative update: Trump's explicit "blockade will remain in full force" language, unresolved nuclear terms, and continuing U.S. enforcement materially reduce the odds that he soon says it has been lifted.

Naly estimate: 38% YES, which makes NO our top answer at 62%.

Alternative explanation: The market may be pricing Trump's communication style more than the treaty text. He has often declared victory before implementation details were finished, so a public lift announcement could arrive even if maritime enforcement and nuclear bargaining still remain messy underneath.

What Would Make Us Wrong

If Pakistan or another intermediary delivers a short memorandum that Trump can sell as a complete breakthrough, he may choose headline closure over policy precision. In that case, the announcement could come before the hardest technical disputes are actually settled.

Fresh Checks

Reuters: Iran offered a Strait deal but Trump was dissatisfied

Reuters: Trump paused Project Freedom but kept the blockade in force

AP: Trump's Iran messaging pinballed between pause and new threats

AP: U.S. forces were still disabling Iranian tankers on May 9

Conclusion

The next catalysts are concrete, not vague: a signed U.S.-Iran memorandum, verified merchant traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, fresh EIA inventory and price data, and any Trump wording that moves from "paused" or "in force" to an explicit lift. If those catalysts stall, today's two YES-favored markets still look too optimistic.

FAQ

What does 63c YES mean on a Polymarket contract?

It means the current entry price is 63 cents for a contract that pays $1 if YES resolves, so the quote is also roughly the market-implied probability for that side.

Why does Naly show the YES price even when its top answer is NO?

Because the market quote and our fair value must refer to the same contract side to make the mispricing legible; the answer flip then appears in the top-answer comparison.

Why is the WTI market not just a normal oil-price forecast?

It is a path-dependent threshold contract. WTI only has to touch $85 once, so the question is about intramonth downside path, not where crude ends May.

Why is the blockade market harder than headline-reading?

The contract needs a specific public Trump announcement that the blockade has been lifted. Progress in talks or partial traffic reopening can happen without satisfying that wording.

Methodology

We start from market-implied priors, ask whether the disagreement is a real answer flip or just a confidence tweak, then update with fresh reporting, official forecasts, and resolution mechanics. We publish calibration on /track-record, deeper scoring context on /predictions/scorecard, and the broader process on /methodology.

Disclaimer

This is probabilistic research for informational purposes only, not investment, legal, or geopolitical advice. Prediction markets can move on new headlines, thin liquidity, or resolution clarifications faster than our written analysis updates.