Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 10, 2026

TL;DROn May 10, 2026, Naly's clearest disagreement with Polymarket is Iran diplomacy: we price next US-Iran meeting in Pakistan at 35c YES versus the market's 68c, and Trump agreeing to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31 at 54c YES versus 30c. The sharpest reason is mediator drift: Qatar is gaining control while asset-release language is already inside the active draft package.

Key Takeaways

We think Polymarket is overweighting Pakistan's formal mediator role and underweighting the newer evidence that Qatar is now driving the hottest live channel.

We think Polymarket is underpricing the chance of an Iranian asset-unfreeze agreement because the live draft already appears to include frozen-funds relief.

The first disagreement is a venue-control problem, not a diplomacy-is-dead problem.

The second disagreement is a contract-wording problem, not a cash-transfer-speed problem.

2 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

YES Resolves June 30, 2026 Open High confidence

Polymarket Top Answer YES 68%

Naly Top Answer NO 65%

Max Payout if Correct +32c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Qatar now runs the hottest mediation channel and Geneva remains live, so Pakistan looks too dominant in the price.

Event Snapshot

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

YES Resolves May 31, 2026 Open Medium-High confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 70%

Naly Top Answer YES 54%

Max Payout if Correct +70c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The contract only needs agreement language, and frozen-funds relief already appears to be inside the active draft package.

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

GeopoliticsContract · YESResolves June 30, 2026OpenHigh confidence

+32c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer YES 68%

Naly Top Answer NO 65%
Trade on Polymarket →

Qatar now runs the hottest mediation channel and Geneva remains live, so Pakistan looks too dominant in the price.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Pakistan's status as the official mediator anchors traders to the last visible venue instead of the current live mediation channel.

↓

Effect Effect: The freshest reporting shows Qatar handling the most urgent shuttle diplomacy while Geneva remains a credible neutral fallback for a technical second round.

↓

Projection Projection: Unless Islamabad is named outright, Pakistan odds should compress as venue uncertainty becomes harder to ignore.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Axios reported on May 9 that Rubio and Witkoff met Qatar's prime minister in Miami to focus on the path to an Iran memorandum, which is a sign that the hottest live channel is Qatari rather than Pakistani.
▲ | Axios reported on May 8 that Qatar is one of at least three back channels, is coordinating with Pakistan, and is using direct contacts with senior IRGC figures.
▲ | Axios reported on May 6 that the next 30-day negotiation phase could happen in Islamabad or Geneva, which means Pakistan is live but not dominant.
▲ | Reuters reported on May 6 and May 7 that Tehran still had not accepted the U.S. proposal, so traders are pricing a venue before the meeting itself is even locked.
▲ | AP reported on May 9 that diplomacy is continuing day and night, but public updates still describe mediator activity rather than a confirmed Pakistan-hosted session.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 68% from the market prior and Pakistan's formal mediator role.

Positive update: Pakistan remains inside every live channel and its officials keep saying they are in contact with both sides around the clock.

Negative update: The newest reporting shifts practical control toward Qatar, keeps Geneva live, and leaves the next actual meeting unscheduled.

Naly estimate: 35%

Alternative explanation: The market could still be right if the parties use Qatar only to pass messages and then snap back to Islamabad for the next formal sit-down because Pakistan already owns the ceasefire file and can host quickly.

What Would Make Us Wrong

A direct statement from the White House, Pakistan, or Iran naming Islamabad as the venue for the next diplomatic session would damage this fade immediately. We would also be wrong if venue optics matter more than channel control and the sides choose continuity over secrecy.

Fresh Checks

Axios, May 9: Rubio and Witkoff meet Qatari mediator in Miami on Iran deal

Axios, May 8: Vance meets Qatari mediator as the U.S. awaits peace plan response

Reuters, May 6: Iran reviewing US proposal to end war, though key demands remain unaddressed

AP, May 9: Iran warns the US against attacks on its oil tankers as ceasefire seems to hold

Event 2

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?

ForecastContract · YESResolves May 31, 2026OpenMedium-High confidence

+70c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 70%

Naly Top Answer YES 54%
Trade on Polymarket →

The contract only needs agreement language, and frozen-funds relief already appears to be inside the active draft package.

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Traders are anchoring to the White House's earlier denial and to the complexity of actually moving sanctioned money.

↓

Effect Effect: That misses the lower resolution bar, because the contract only needs Trump to agree to unfreeze assets, not to complete the transfer before May 31.

↓

Projection Projection: If the current memorandum or 30-day framework publicly includes frozen-funds relief, YES should reprice higher quickly even before money moves.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Axios reported on May 6 that the live one-page memorandum would involve the U.S. agreeing to release billions in frozen Iranian funds.
▲ | Reuters reported on May 6 and May 7 that the draft peace framework under discussion would eventually lift sanctions and release frozen Iranian funds after an initial memorandum stage.
▲ | Reuters reported on April 11 that Iranian sources said Washington had already agreed in principle to unfreeze funds, even though a U.S. official denied it; that contradiction still tells us the issue is active, negotiable, and near the center of the talks.
▲ | Reuters reported on April 17 that a senior Iranian official described unfreezing funds as part of the deal for reopening Hormuz, tying the asset question to the war-ending package rather than to a side issue.
▲ | The current obstacle is timing, not topic inclusion: Tehran's response is still pending, but the asset-release term is already inside the bargaining set.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 30% from the market prior and the history of failed breakthrough headlines.

Positive update: Multiple May 2026 reports place frozen-funds relief inside the active draft package, which is exactly the kind of agreement language this contract needs.

Negative update: The White House previously denied an agreement, and unresolved disputes over enrichment and Hormuz could still push a real commitment past May 31.

Naly estimate: 54%

Alternative explanation: The market may be pricing the possibility that Trump only offers frozen-funds relief as a contingent final-step concession after a broader nuclear and shipping deal is signed, which would leave this contract unresolved even if talks keep improving.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if Tehran rejects the current draft, if Washington strips asset-release language out of the memorandum, or if both sides keep the issue deliberately ambiguous until after May 31. Any official clarification that funds can only move after a later final accord would weaken YES fast.

Fresh Checks

Axios, May 6: U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, officials say

Reuters, May 7: US and Iran explore short-term deal to end fighting

Reuters, April 17: Ships crossing Hormuz need OK from IRGC, unfreezing funds part of deal

Reuters, April 11: Exclusive-Iranian source says US has agreed to unfreeze Iranian funds, Washington denies it

Conclusion

The next catalysts are concrete: whether Tehran finally sends its response, whether Rubio, Vance, Witkoff, or Pakistani officials announce a formal second-round venue, and whether any public draft language confirms sanctions relief or frozen-funds release before May 31, 2026. If Islamabad is named outright, we cut the first fade. If asset-release language is deferred to a later final accord, we cut the second.

Methodology

We start from the selected market's implied prior, convert each side into cents on a $1 binary contract, then update with fresh reporting, mediator incentives, contract wording, and timeline risk. Our calibration history and resolved-market scorecards live on our track record, which is where we check whether answer flips like these actually earn trust.

Disclaimer

This article is probabilistic research for informational purposes only. It is not financial, legal, or investment advice, and prediction-market contracts can reprice violently on thin or contradictory news.