Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 31, 2026

TL;DROn May 31, 2026, Naly's sharpest geopolitical disagreement is the Hormuz-blockade market: Polymarket prices YES at 68c, but we mark YES nearer 20c and favor NO at 80%. The reason is simple: enforcement is still active while both Washington and Tehran say the deal is unfinished, so traders seem to be pricing headlines about progress as if a signed announcement already exists.

Key Takeaways

Naly sees the clearest answer flip in the Hormuz-blockade announcement market: Polymarket leans YES, while we lean NO.

The latest reporting still shows active blockade enforcement, which is hard to reconcile with a near-term assumption that the blockade has effectively already been lifted.

Both Washington and Tehran are still describing the deal as incomplete or conditional, which means the political path to a formal Trump announcement remains narrow.

The tradable edge is not just that confidence should be lower. It is that the top answer itself still looks wrong.

Prediction markets are often best when they compress conflicting information into one tradable number. They are weakest when traders blur a conditional diplomatic headline into a concrete resolution event. That is the setup in today's geopolitical board: progress exists, but the formal announcement condition still looks much harder than the current price suggests.

Summary Comparison Table

Event | Contract | Market Price | Naly Fair Price | Polymarket Top Answer | Naly Top Answer | Market Components | Naly Components | Component Score | Max Payout if Correct | Fair-Value Edge | Resolves | Result | Confidence | Why We Disagree
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | YES/NO | 68c YES | 20c YES | YES 67% | NO 80% | Yes 67%, No 33% | Yes 20%, No 80% | 48 | 68c on NO if correct | NO +48c vs market-implied NO | June 30, 2026 | Open | 88% | The market is pricing tentative deal momentum as if it were already a signed, announced reversal of an actively enforced blockade.

1. Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Market vs. our view: YES at 68c vs YES at 20c fair price Top answers: Polymarket YES 67% vs Naly NO 80% Component scoring: Market YES 67%, NO 33% | Naly YES 20%, NO 80% | Component score 48 Causal chain

Cause bullet: The quoted 68c YES is the current entry price for the YES side and implies roughly a 68% market probability that Trump will explicitly announce the blockade has been lifted by June 30, 2026.

Effect bullet: Naly's 20% YES estimate implies a 20c fair price on that same YES contract, so our disagreement is an answer flip, not a mild haircut in confidence; the cleaner trade logic points toward NO at roughly 80%, where the max payout if correct is 68c on a 32c NO entry.

Projection bullet: As long as enforcement actions continue and both sides keep describing the framework as unfinished, the path from tentative progress to a formal presidential announcement remains materially narrower than Polymarket suggests. Key factors

AP reported on May 30 that the U.S. military stopped another merchant vessel trying to break the blockade, evidence that the blockade is still operational rather than quietly winding down.

AP also reported on May 29 that Trump held a Situation Room meeting but left without making a final decision on the deal that could reopen the strait.

Reuters reported on May 29 that U.S. and Iranian positions still differ on core conditions, including nuclear issues, shipping terms, and sequencing.

Iranian officials are still framing any reopening as contingent on U.S. action first, which increases the risk of sequencing deadlock even if negotiators want a framework.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comment that any removal would happen slowly if it happens is inconsistent with traders acting as though a clean announcement is close to certain. Bayesian calculation

Base rate: Start from the market-implied 68% YES baseline because diplomatic headlines did move both sides closer to a framework.

Positive update: Tentative agreement reports and pressure to relieve energy-market stress justify keeping a live path to a June announcement rather than collapsing YES to single digits.

Negative update: Active interception, no final Trump approval, and unresolved sequencing between blockade relief and Iranian concessions all point the other way and matter more because the market resolves on a specific announcement, not on vague improvement.

Naly estimate: 20% YES, which means 20c fair value on YES and 80c fair value on NO. Alternative explanation The bullish market case is that Trump may prefer a politically dramatic announcement before every implementation detail is settled, using a provisional framework as enough cover to declare the blockade effectively lifted. If that is how he chooses to message progress, the market's YES side can win earlier than strict operational logic would imply. What would make us wrong We are wrong if the White House decides that a high-level memorandum plus a reopening commitment is sufficient for Trump to announce the blockade has been lifted even while implementation is phased. A signed deal, synchronized U.S.-Iran messaging, or a clear halt in interdictions would all narrow the gap fast. Fresh checks

AP: Trump weighs whether to go with Iran deal but hasn't decided yet

AP: US military stops another merchant ship in Iranian port blockade

Reuters: Trump says he will soon decide on Iran deal, demands reopening of Hormuz Strait

Axios: U.S. and Iran reach deal but need Trump's final approval, officials say

Methodology

Naly's geopolitical roundups use the same mispricing method as our finance roundups: convert the market's live cents quote into an implied probability, build a separate causal estimate from current reporting and base rates, then compare the two for edge. Track how these calls perform over time on our track record.

Conclusion

The immediate watchpoints are straightforward: a signed ceasefire-extension framework, explicit White House language that Trump approved it, and proof that interdictions in and around the blockade have actually stopped. Until one of those catalysts arrives, the stronger interpretation is that traders are paying up for negotiation momentum before the resolution condition exists.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and reflects Naly's probabilistic judgment as of May 31, 2026. It is not investment advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to trade any specific contract.