KBO predictions for July 9, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

July 9, 2026 KBO board has 1 same-day Polymarket winner markets after official schedule verification. We rank every game by model-versus-market gap, show the market price, Naly estimate, expected-run read, confidence, and linked news checks. The strongest edge is Samsung Lions at 64% against the market baseline.

Key Takeaways

The article uses the same mispricing workflow as the finance roundups: market prior, Naly fair value, explicit edge, and a negative-case test for each event.

Samsung Lions is the strongest same-day KBO disagreement at 64% Naly probability and +21 pp versus Polymarket.

Every matchup section includes its own Polymarket link, official KBO data references, and related news checks.

Low-confidence edges stay in the article because they are useful for calibration, but they should not be read as strong calls.

Summary Comparison Table

Event | Contract | Market Price | Naly Fair Price | Polymarket Top Answer | Naly Top Answer | Market Components | Naly Components | Component Score | Max Payout if Correct | Fair-Value Edge | Resolves | Result | Confidence | Why We Disagree
LG Twins at Samsung Lions | Samsung Lions WIN | 44% Samsung Lions | 64% Samsung Lions | LG Twins 56% | Samsung Lions 64% | LG Twins 56%, Samsung Lions 44% | LG Twins 36%, Samsung Lions 64% | 21pp | +56c | +21 | July 9, 2026 | | high | Samsung Lions prices at 44% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 64% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+21 pp).

1. LG Twins at Samsung Lions

Market vs. our view: 44% vs 64% Samsung Lions prices at 44% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 64% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+21 pp). Causal chain

Cause: Official KBO schedule data keeps LG Twins at Samsung Lions in the same-day board, while Polymarket still has a live winner market.

Effect: Official team hitting and pitching tables create an expected-run read of LG Twins 4.54, Samsung Lions 5.45.

Projection: Samsung Lions is the article side if the fair-value gap survives lineup and news checks before first pitch. Key factors

Expected-run read: Samsung Lions 5.45, LG Twins 4.54.

Polymarket implies 44%; Naly estimates 64%, leaving +21 pp of fair-value gap.

Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied.

News checks used for this matchup: Samsung Lions' Right-Handed Pitchers Struggle With Injuries; LG Twins stay hot, Landers and KT Wiz Add Former MLB Pitchers. Bayesian calculation

Base rate: 44% market-implied prior.

Positive update: +22 points from schedule-verified expected runs, team run prevention, and side-specific news checks.

Negative update: -1 points for lineup uncertainty, starter volatility, and low-liquidity KBO market noise.

Naly estimate: 64%. Alternative explanation Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet. What would make us wrong A late scratch, confirmed starter mismatch, bullpen-rest surprise, or lineup change against Samsung Lions would reduce the edge quickly, especially because this is only a high-confidence call. Fresh checks

Polymarket market

Official KBO team hitting table

Official KBO team pitching table

Official KBO schedule

Samsung Lions' Right-Handed Pitchers Struggle With Injuries - Yook Sun-yup sidelined with elbow inflammation, Kim Mu-shin faces shoulder issues as team chases LG Twins. By OSEN. Published 2026.07.02.

LG Twins stay hot, Landers and KT Wiz Add Former MLB Pitchers - One of the KBO's biggest storylines this season has been the injury to KT Wiz star outfielder Hyun-min Ahn. Ahn broke out in 2025, posting a ...

KBO Injury Report - RotoWire - There are no injuries at the moment. Export Table Data. Excel CSV. Unlock the Full Injury Report Today. Subscribe Now. RotoWire Logo.

KBO LIVE LG Twins vs Samsung Lions (July 7th) - YouTube - ... kbo #hanwhaeagles #lgtwins #baseball #한화이글스 #엘지트윈스 # ... KBO LIVE LG Twins vs Samsung Lions (July 7th). @DreadsROKTVNo ...

Data and source notes

Official KBO team hitting table was used for runs per game and offensive context.

Official KBO team pitching table was used for ERA, WHIP, runs allowed, and strikeout/walk context.

Official KBO schedule data was used to reject stale Polymarket markets that are still marked active after a game has completed.

Polymarket prices were used as the market-implied baseline and section-level market link for each matchup.

News snippets were used as a small adjustment only when they clearly referred to injuries, returns, starters, or availability.

Sources

https://polymarket.com/event/kbo-lg-sam-2026-07-09?tid=kbo-lg-sam-2026-07-09

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Record/Team/Hitter/Basic1.aspx

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Record/Team/Pitcher/Basic1.aspx

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Schedule/Schedule.aspx

https://www.chosun.com/english/sports-en/2026/07/02/OEQKW2PLCRHMLI6CHWFNQCNM2U/

https://worldbaseball.com/kbo-roundup-lg-twins-stay-hot-landers-and-kt-wiz-add-former-mlb-pitchers/

https://www.rotowire.com/kbo/injury-report.php?pos=C&team=LG

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ww8YsgJVe4I

https://www.reddit.com/r/KBO/comments/1krbdux/kboleading_twins_lose_outfielder_hong_changki_for/

Methodology

We treat Polymarket as the market-implied prior, then update with official KBO schedule, team hitting, team pitching, expected runs, home field, and public news. Each event keeps the same finance-article structure: explicit market disagreement, causal chain, key factors, Bayesian adjustment, alternative explanation, and a wrong-case test. The result is stored for post-game calibration.

Conclusion

The highest-information checks before first pitch are lineup confirmation, starting-pitcher confirmation, bullpen availability, and whether any injury item changes the expected-run baseline. The article should be judged after settlement by whether the hypothesis identified the right side of the market disagreement, not by whether every low-confidence pick won.

Disclaimer

This is a prediction article, not betting advice. The pipeline is built for transparent article production and post-game learning, not automated trading.

Source

Polymarket