Monthly Prediction Recap: May 2026

May 2026 resolved 32 qualified calls: Naly 12/32 (38%), Brier 0.384. Calibration and Brier score are updated at /predictions/scorecard; this recap summarises only the answer-flip events with a component score of at least 20 that resolved between May 1 and May-end UTC.

Key Takeaways

Qualified resolutions: 32 (Naly 12 correct, Polymarket 20 correct on the same set).

Brier score: Naly 0.384, Polymarket 0.216. Lower is better; 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip.

Best call: Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? — component score 62, Naly top answer "Yes" resolved Yes.

Worst call: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? — component score 81, Naly top answer "Yes" resolved No.

Brier and Calibration

This month we evaluated 32 qualified answer-flip predictions. Each Brier score below is the mean of (favored-answer probability − actual outcome)².

Forecaster | Brier | Lower is better
Naly | 0.384 | —
Polymarket (same events) | 0.216 | —

Calibration buckets

Bucket | Predicted avg | Actual frequency | Count
40-60% | 56% | 0% | 4
60-80% | 68% | 50% | 12
80-100% | 86% | 38% | 16

Accuracy by Category

Category | Resolved | Correct | Accuracy
politics | 24 | 9 | 38%
stock | 3 | 1 | 33%
geopolitics | 3 | 1 | 33%
elections | 2 | 1 | 50%

Top Qualified Calls This Month

Event | Naly top answer | Market top answer | Component score | Resolved | Naly right?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | Yes (99%) | No (82%) | 81 | No | ✗
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? | Yes (86%) | No (77%) | 63 | No | ✗
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? | Yes (95%) | No (66%) | 62 | Yes | ✓
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | Yes (78%) | No (83%) | 61 | No | ✗
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | Yes (80%) | No (77%) | 57 | No | ✗

Methodology note

This recap only counts resolved predictions where Naly's top answer flipped away from Polymarket's top answer AND the answer-level component score was at least 20 points. Same-side recalibrations and weak flips are tracked separately and excluded from the core scorecard. The pipeline, selection rule, and Brier calculation are described in full at /methodology.

Disclaimer: not financial advice. Prediction markets are real-money instruments with real risk. Read the track record and methodology before trading anything.