Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 25, 2026

TL;DROn June 25, 2026, Naly's clearest election disagreement is Colorado governor: Polymarket prices Michael Bennet YES at 64c, but we mark that contract 40c fair and make NO our top answer at 60%. The sharpest reason is electorate mix: late, low-turnout Democratic primary voters look more receptive to Phil Weiser's activist and anti-Trump case than Bennet's name recognition.

Key Takeaways

Naly's main answer flip is in Colorado's Democratic governor primary: the market favors Michael Bennet, while our top answer is NO on Bennet.

The biggest disagreement is about electorate composition, not biography: Weiser's coalition appears better matched to a late, high-attention Democratic primary electorate.

Bennet's Senate stature and fundraising keep him live, but they do not justify a 64c YES price in a race still defined by undecideds and turnout execution.

If late ballots come disproportionately from engaged Democratic and unaffiliated anti-Trump voters, the market's Bennet premium should compress.

Prediction markets are often directionally right, but they still misprice elections when traders anchor too hard on name recognition, stale early narratives, or broad-electorate assumptions that do not fit a specific primary. Today's election roundup focuses on where that looks most likely on June 25, 2026.

Summary Comparison Table

Event | Contract | Market Price | Naly Fair Price | Polymarket Top Answer | Naly Top Answer | Market Components | Naly Components | Component Score | Max Payout if Correct | Fair-Value Edge | Resolves | Result | Confidence | Why We Disagree
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? | YES on Bennet | 64c | 40c | YES 64% | NO 60% | Yes 64%, No 36% | Yes 40%, No 60% | 24 | 64c profit on NO bought at 36c | +24c on NO versus market | June 30, 2026 | Pending | 68 | Market appears to overweight Bennet's familiarity and underweight Weiser's activist fit, assembly strength, and late-turnout dynamics.

1. Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

Market vs. our view: YES is trading at 64c, which is both the current entry price and roughly the market-implied probability on this $1 binary contract. Naly's fair price on that same YES side is 40c because our separate estimate is 40% YES. That means our answer flip is really on the other side: NO is 36c in the market but 60c fair by our model. If NO is bought at 36c and resolves correctly, the max payout is $1 with 64c gross profit; the fair-value edge is the 24c gap between the market's 36c NO price and our 60c fair price.

Top answers: Polymarket YES 64% vs Naly NO 60%

Component scoring: Market YES 64%, NO 36% | Naly YES 40%, NO 60% | Component score 24

Causal chain

Cause bullet: Weiser's message is better aligned with the most motivated anti-Trump and activist Democratic voters, while Bennet still carries skepticism for Senate confirmation votes and for leaving Washington mid-term.

Effect bullet: In a low-turnout primary with many late-deciding voters, enthusiasm and fit with the engaged electorate matter more than broad statewide familiarity alone.

Projection bullet: If undecideds and late ballot returners break toward the candidate seen as more confrontational toward Trump and more rooted in Colorado executive politics, Bennet's 64c YES price is too high and NO should trade materially above 36c.

Key factors

Recent CPR reporting said the race remained hotly contested with many voters still undecided, which weakens the case for pricing Bennet as a near two-thirds favorite days before resolution.

Axios reported on March 28 that Weiser won 90% of the Democratic assembly delegate preference poll, a sign of very strong activist-side intensity even if it is not the whole electorate.

Axios's June 23 voter guide framed the race less as a policy split and more as a leadership and anti-Trump effectiveness choice, which favors whichever candidate better matches the emotional priorities of primary voters rather than the better-known resume.

CPR highlighted Weiser's contrast as the candidate who has filed or joined more than 50 lawsuits against the Trump administration, while Bennet has taken heat for confirming several Trump cabinet nominees.

Colorado Sun reported on June 22 that a Bennet primary win would also effectively hand him power to appoint his own Senate replacement, creating a second-order choice that may make some Democrats hesitate even if they generally like him.

Axios reported on June 24 that only 11% of registered voters had cast ballots through Tuesday, implying the final week turnout operation and the composition of late voters matter unusually heavily.

Bayesian calculation

Base rate: Start from the market-implied 64% YES / 36% NO because it already incorporates public information and trader conviction.

Positive update: Bennet keeps strong name recognition, substantial resources, and a credible argument that his experience is broader than Weiser's, which keeps a real path to victory and prevents a collapse below 40%.

Negative update: High undecideds, Weiser's activist dominance, anti-Trump mood, and late-turnout uncertainty all point against treating Bennet as a clean favorite.

Naly estimate: YES 40%, NO 60%, implying 40c fair on YES and 60c fair on NO.

Alternative explanation The market may simply be correct that Bennet's statewide familiarity, fundraising, and broad acceptability among casual Democrats outweigh activist intensity. In that story, undecideds break toward the familiar senator, and Weiser's assembly strength proves too narrow a signal.

What would make us wrong We are wrong if late unaffiliated and lower-information Democratic voters behave more like a general-election electorate than an activist-heavy primary electorate. We are also wrong if Bennet's final-week message on experience and governing breadth consolidates undecideds fast enough to turn a close race into a conventional frontrunner finish.

Fresh checks

CPR: Bennet, Weiser criss-cross state in hopes of wooing undecided voters

Axios Denver: 1-minute voter guide for Colorado governor Democratic primary

Axios Denver: Colorado's early vote lags ahead of primary election

The Colorado Sun: Who would Michael Bennet pick to replace himself in the Senate?

Methodology

Naly's election mispricing process uses the market as a starting prior, then adjusts for category-specific causal drivers: electorate composition, turnout mechanics, elite signaling, institutional constraints, and what actually resolves the contract. We publish our broader calibration and historical hit rate at /track-record.

For election markets, the main question is not just who has the stronger biography. It is whether the market is pricing the right electorate at the right moment. In primaries especially, the decisive error is often overgeneralizing from statewide familiarity to the narrower high-intensity voters who actually decide the contest.

Conclusion

The main watchpoints from June 25, 2026 to resolution are straightforward: ballot-return composition in the final week, whether undecideds break for familiarity or confrontation, and whether Bennet's Senate-resignation question keeps suppressing marginal support. If late Democratic and unaffiliated anti-Trump voters dominate the close, the Bennet YES price should look too rich in hindsight.

Disclaimer

This article is analysis, not financial, legal, or voting advice. Prediction markets can move quickly, election administration can change timelines, and late information can invalidate a thesis. Markets cited reflect prices available on June 25, 2026, and Naly fair values are internal probability estimates rather than guarantees.