Daily Market Mispricings: 2 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — May 16, 2026

TL;DROn May 16, 2026, Naly’s clearest geopolitical disagreement with Polymarket is China’s Boeing purchase market: Polymarket prices YES at 34c, but we think fair value is closer to 95c after Trump announced the deal and Boeing confirmed it. We also lean YES on rare-earth export relief at 58c fair versus 19c market because quiet licensing momentum usually precedes formal policy headlines.

Geopolitical prediction markets often underprice events when the real bottleneck is not whether officials want a deal, but whether traders trust the exact wording, the messenger, or the timing. That is where today’s edge sits: one market appears trapped by technical resolution anxiety even after substance arrived, and the other appears to be anchoring too hard to past friction while the implementation path is already moving.

Key Takeaways

The strongest answer flip is the Boeing purchase market: Polymarket’s top answer is NO at 66%, while Naly’s top answer is YES at 95%.

Our rare-earth relief disagreement is smaller but still material because export approvals are already improving, which often comes before a public policy label catches up.

In both markets, traders seem to be overweighting headline ambiguity and underweighting the causal sequence from summit incentives to deliverable announcements.

The critical watchpoint is not broad US-China sentiment but whether Beijing chooses a formal public statement versus quieter implementation through licensing and state-linked channels.

2 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?

YES Resolves May 22, 2026 Open High confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 66%

Naly Top Answer YES 95%

Max Payout if Correct +66c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Substance appears to have already arrived; only wording and attribution risk remain.

Event Snapshot

Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?

YES Resolves May 22, 2026 Open Medium-high confidence

Polymarket Top Answer NO 81%

Naly Top Answer YES 58%

Max Payout if Correct +81c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: The market is pricing continued gridlock, but the implementation trend already points toward formalized relief.

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?

GeopoliticsContract · YESResolves May 22, 2026OpenHigh confidence

+66c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 66%

Naly Top Answer YES 95%
Trade on Polymarket →

The quoted market price here is for the YES side: buying YES at 34c means paying 34 cents for a $1 binary contract, so the entry price is also roughly the market-implied probability of a true resolution. Our 95% estimate implies a 95c fair price on that same YES contract. That means max payout if correct is 66c per share, while the fair-value edge is 61c, the gap between 34c market and 95c fair value. This is a true answer flip because Polymarket’s top answer is NO, while ours is YES.

Causal Chain

Cause Trump had a strong summit incentive to leave Beijing with a concrete export win large enough to symbolize reopening bilateral trade.

↓

Effect Once Trump publicly announced a 200-plane agreement and Boeing separately confirmed it, the event moved from speculative diplomacy into resolution-language territory.

↓

Projection The remaining path to settlement is mostly technical: if the market accepts that this qualifies as a Chinese announcement or a clearly attributable agreement, YES should converge sharply.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | AP reported on May 15, 2026 that Trump said China agreed to buy 200 Boeing aircraft and that Boeing later confirmed the order.
▲ | Reuters reported before the summit that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expected a large Boeing order during the visit, which matters because it shows the outcome was part of the summit’s planned deliverables rather than post-hoc spin.
▲ | Boeing called reopening the China market to aircraft orders a major goal, which lowers the odds that the White House statement was a casual exaggeration detached from company-level validation.
▲ | The market likely still discounts the contract because the announcement was routed through Trump first, not through a clean Chinese ministry statement.
▲ | That skepticism is understandable, but once Boeing itself confirmed the order, the burden shifted from proving substance to parsing resolution wording.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 34% from the market-implied YES price before fully crediting post-summit confirmation.

Positive update: Trump publicly announced the purchase and Boeing separately confirmed a 200-plane order, which is the kind of dual-source validation that usually resolves announcement markets toward YES.

Negative update: If the contract requires a very specific Chinese-side public announcement, attribution risk could still block resolution despite substantive agreement.

Naly estimate: 95% YES.

Alternative explanation: A disciplined bear case is that traders are not denying the commercial substance of a Boeing deal; they are pricing a resolution trap. If the contract’s wording is interpreted narrowly enough, a Trump statement plus Boeing confirmation might still fail without an unmistakable Chinese announcement.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if China keeps the deal deliberately informal, lets Trump and Boeing talk for it, and never issues qualifying announcement language by May 22, 2026. We are also wrong if a last-minute clarification reveals the deal was only an expression of intent rather than an announcement that satisfies the market rules.

Fresh Checks

AP: Trump and Boeing say China agreed to buy 200 aircraft

Reuters via Investing.com: Bessent expected a large Boeing order during the China visit

Reuters pickup: Trump says China to buy 200 Boeing jets, order could rise further

Event 2

Will China announce rare earth export relief by May 22?

GeopoliticsContract · YESResolves May 22, 2026OpenMedium-high confidence

+81c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer NO 81%

Naly Top Answer YES 58%
Trade on Polymarket →

The quoted market price here is for the YES side: buying YES at 19c means paying 19 cents for a binary contract that returns $1 if the market resolves true, so 19c is both the entry price and roughly the market-implied probability. Our estimate is 58% YES, which maps to a 58c fair price on the same contract. Max payout if correct is 81c per share, while the fair-value edge is 39c. This is an answer flip because Polymarket’s top answer is NO, while ours is YES.

Causal Chain

Cause The summit’s political goal is to preserve the trade truce, and rare earths are one of the most economically painful friction points still active.

↓

Effect Export approvals are already improving, which suggests the bureaucracy is moving before the public narrative fully reflects it.

↓

Projection If both sides want stability and some relief is already happening in practice, a formal announcement by May 22, 2026 is more plausible than the market’s 19c implies.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Reuters reported on May 13, 2026 that Trump and Xi were considering extending a truce on Chinese rare earth export curbs, putting the issue directly on the summit agenda.
▲ | Reuters reported on May 15, 2026 that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said rare earth exports to the United States were improving, even if approvals remained slow.
▲ | Greer’s comment that he would give China a “passing grade” matters because it implies partial compliance is already observable, not hypothetical.
▲ | Quiet licensing is exactly how Beijing often preserves leverage while still easing pressure, so traders may be waiting for a dramatic headline that Chinese policy style rarely provides.
▲ | The market appears to be anchoring to the fact that shortages and restrictions still exist, but partial implementation and headline timing are different questions.
▲ | Because this contract resolves on an announcement, not on complete normalization, the threshold for YES is lower than the threshold for a fully functioning rare-earth trade relationship.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 19% from the market-implied YES price.

Positive update: Rare earth relief is on the summit agenda and US officials say flows are already improving, both of which push probability materially higher.

Negative update: Beijing may prefer selective licensing without a headline declaration, and slow approvals show the bureaucracy is still cautious.

Naly estimate: 58% YES.

Alternative explanation: The cleanest bear case is that the market correctly understands Beijing’s playbook: China can provide just enough licensing relief to avoid escalation while refusing to package it as a public concession. In that scenario, economic reality improves but the contract still dies on the vine.

What Would Make Us Wrong

We are wrong if Chinese officials decide that preserving ambiguity creates more negotiating leverage than announcing relief before May 22, 2026. We are also wrong if the recent export improvement is too narrow or too quiet to count as the type of relief announcement this market needs.

Fresh Checks

Reuters via Investing.com: Trump and Xi to weigh rare earth truce extension, but curbs still bite

Reuters via MarketScreener: Greer says rare earth exports are improving though approvals remain slow

USTR 2026 National Trade Estimate report discussing rare earth export controls

Conclusion

The main catalyst window now runs through May 22, 2026. For Boeing, the watchpoint is whether any additional Chinese-side language removes residual resolution ambiguity around an agreement that already looks substantively announced. For rare earths, the watchpoint is whether improving export approvals stay quiet and incremental or get packaged into a formal relief statement. In both cases, the market may be underestimating how often diplomatic implementation arrives before traders feel comfortable calling it real.

Methodology

Naly’s mispricing method is the same one used in our finance roundups: translate each quoted market side into implied probability, identify the market’s top answer, then rebuild the event from causal drivers, timing incentives, and resolution mechanics to estimate a separate fair price. We track how these calls perform over time at Naly Track Record.

Disclaimer

This article is for information and research purposes only and is not investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any prediction market contract. Prediction markets can resolve on technical wording and source criteria, so being directionally right on the underlying situation does not guarantee a profitable outcome.