Monthly Prediction Recap: June 2026

June 2026 resolved 44 qualified calls: Naly 13/44 (30%), Brier 0.395. Calibration and Brier score are updated at /predictions/scorecard; this recap summarises only the answer-flip events with a component score of at least 20 that resolved between June 1 and June-end UTC.

Key Takeaways

Qualified resolutions: 44 (Naly 13 correct, Polymarket 31 correct on the same set).

Brier score: Naly 0.395, Polymarket 0.205. Lower is better; 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip.

Best call: Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? — component score 73, Naly top answer "No" resolved No.

Worst call: Iran leadership change by May 31? — component score 82, Naly top answer "Yes" resolved No.

Brier and Calibration

This month we evaluated 44 qualified answer-flip predictions. Each Brier score below is the mean of (favored-answer probability − actual outcome)².

Forecaster | Brier | Lower is better
Naly | 0.395 | —
Polymarket (same events) | 0.205 | —

Calibration buckets

Bucket | Predicted avg | Actual frequency | Count
40-60% | 55% | 31% | 13
60-80% | 67% | 29% | 21
80-100% | 92% | 30% | 10

Accuracy by Category

Category | Resolved | Correct | Accuracy
politics | 27 | 7 | 26%
geopolitics | 5 | 0 | 0%
elections | 5 | 3 | 60%
finance | 4 | 2 | 50%
stock | 3 | 1 | 33%

Top Qualified Calls This Month

Event | Naly top answer | Market top answer | Component score | Resolved | Naly right?
Iran leadership change by May 31? | Yes (100%) | No (82%) | 82 | No | ✗
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? | Yes (99%) | No (81%) | 80 | No | ✗
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? | Yes (99%) | No (81%) | 80 | No | ✗
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? | Yes (98%) | No (79%) | 77 | No | ✗
Iran leadership change by May 31? | Yes (97%) | No (80%) | 77 | No | ✗