Monthly Prediction Recap: April 2026

April 2026 resolved 30 qualified calls: Naly 12/30 (40%), Brier 0.297. Calibration and Brier score are updated at /predictions/scorecard; this recap summarises only the answer-flip events with a component score of at least 20 that resolved between April 1 and April-end UTC.

Key Takeaways

Qualified resolutions: 30 (Naly 12 correct, Polymarket 18 correct on the same set).

Brier score: Naly 0.297, Polymarket 0.240. Lower is better; 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip.

Best call: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? — component score 78, Naly top answer "Yes" resolved Yes.

Worst call: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? — component score 83, Naly top answer "Yes" resolved No.

Brier and Calibration

This month we evaluated 30 qualified answer-flip predictions. Each Brier score below is the mean of (favored-answer probability − actual outcome)².

Forecaster | Brier | Lower is better
Naly | 0.297 | —
Polymarket (same events) | 0.240 | —

Calibration buckets

Bucket | Predicted avg | Actual frequency | Count
40-60% | 55% | 13% | 8
60-80% | 64% | 22% | 9
80-100% | 96% | 69% | 13

Accuracy by Category

Category | Resolved | Correct | Accuracy
stock | 15 | 9 | 60%
politics | 11 | 2 | 18%
crypto | 2 | 0 | 0%
sports | 2 | 1 | 50%

Top Qualified Calls This Month

Event | Naly top answer | Market top answer | Component score | Resolved | Naly right?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | Yes (100%) | No (83%) | 83 | No | ✗
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | Yes (99%) | No (79%) | 78 | Yes | ✓
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | Yes (100%) | No (76%) | 76 | Yes | ✓
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? | Yes (99%) | No (73%) | 72 | Yes | ✓
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? | Yes (98%) | No (73%) | 71 | No | ✗