KBO predictions for July 8, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

July 8, 2026 KBO board has 1 same-day Polymarket winner markets after official schedule verification. We rank every game by model-versus-market gap, show the market price, Naly estimate, expected-run read, confidence, and linked news checks. The strongest edge is Lotte Giants at 41% against the market baseline.

Key Takeaways

The article uses the same mispricing workflow as the finance roundups: market prior, Naly fair value, explicit edge, and a negative-case test for each event.

Lotte Giants is the strongest same-day KBO disagreement at 41% Naly probability and +3 pp versus Polymarket.

Every matchup section includes its own Polymarket link, official KBO data references, and related news checks.

Low-confidence edges stay in the article because they are useful for calibration, but they should not be read as strong calls.

Summary Comparison Table

Event | Contract | Market Price | Naly Fair Price | Polymarket Top Answer | Naly Top Answer | Market Components | Naly Components | Component Score | Max Payout if Correct | Fair-Value Edge | Resolves | Result | Confidence | Why We Disagree
Kia Tigers at Lotte Giants | Lotte Giants WIN | 38% Lotte Giants | 41% Lotte Giants | Kia Tigers 63% | Kia Tigers 59% | Kia Tigers 63%, Lotte Giants 38% | Kia Tigers 59%, Lotte Giants 41% | 3pp | +63c | +3 | July 8, 2026 | | low | Lotte Giants prices at 38% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 41% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+3 pp).

1. Kia Tigers at Lotte Giants

Market vs. our view: 38% vs 41% Lotte Giants prices at 38% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 41% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+3 pp). Causal chain

Cause: Official KBO schedule data keeps Kia Tigers at Lotte Giants in the same-day board, while Polymarket still has a live winner market.

Effect: Official team hitting and pitching tables create an expected-run read of Kia Tigers 5.2, Lotte Giants 4.16.

Projection: Lotte Giants is the article side if the fair-value gap survives lineup and news checks before first pitch. Key factors

Expected-run read: Lotte Giants 4.16, Kia Tigers 5.2.

Polymarket implies 38%; Naly estimates 41%, leaving +3 pp of fair-value gap.

Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied.

News checks used for this matchup: KBO: Aderlin Rodriguez Hits Three-Run Shot in First At-Bat With Tigers; KBO clubs lose key players to injuries over opening weekend. Bayesian calculation

Base rate: 38% market-implied prior.

Positive update: +7 points from schedule-verified expected runs, team run prevention, and side-specific news checks.

Negative update: -4 points for lineup uncertainty, starter volatility, and low-liquidity KBO market noise.

Naly estimate: 41%. Alternative explanation Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet. What would make us wrong A late scratch, confirmed starter mismatch, bullpen-rest surprise, or lineup change against Lotte Giants would reduce the edge quickly, especially because this is only a low-confidence call. Fresh checks

Polymarket market

Official KBO team hitting table

Official KBO team pitching table

Official KBO schedule

KBO: Aderlin Rodriguez Hits Three-Run Shot in First At-Bat With Tigers - White's injury replacement, Japanese left-hander Ginjiro Hiramoto, 26, had been pitching for the Gunma Diamond Pegasus in a semi-professional ...

KBO clubs lose key players to injuries over opening weekend - Lotte Giants pitcher Lee Min-seok has been diagnosed with ligament damage in his right elbow but will go for a second opinion later this week.

Topic: Lotte Giants - The Korea Times - Struggling Giants lose infielder for 3 weeks with oblique injury · Mired in late-summer swoon, Giants face crucial week in KBO · Lotte Giants sign ex-MLB pitcher ...

KIA Tigers unable to come to terms with injury replacement player ... - KIA Tigers unable to come to terms with injury replacement player Rodriguez. News.

Data and source notes

Official KBO team hitting table was used for runs per game and offensive context.

Official KBO team pitching table was used for ERA, WHIP, runs allowed, and strikeout/walk context.

Official KBO schedule data was used to reject stale Polymarket markets that are still marked active after a game has completed.

Polymarket prices were used as the market-implied baseline and section-level market link for each matchup.

News snippets were used as a small adjustment only when they clearly referred to injuries, returns, starters, or availability.

Sources

https://polymarket.com/event/kbo-kia-lot-2026-07-08?tid=kbo-kia-lot-2026-07-08

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Record/Team/Hitter/Basic1.aspx

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Record/Team/Pitcher/Basic1.aspx

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Schedule/Schedule.aspx

https://worldbaseball.com/kbo-aderlin-rodriguez-hits-three-run-shot-in-first-at-bat-with-tigers-landers-find-mitch-white-injury-replacement/

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230404002600315

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/topic/lotte-giants/list?page=2

https://www.reddit.com/r/KBO/comments/1u4i57w/kia_tigers_unable_to_come_to_terms_with_injury/

https://www.sofascore.com/baseball/match/kia-tigers-lotte-giants/WoAbsXoAb