KBO predictions for July 1, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

July 1, 2026 KBO board has 1 same-day Polymarket winner markets after official schedule verification. We rank every game by model-versus-market gap, show the market price, Naly estimate, expected-run read, confidence, and linked news checks. The strongest edge is KT Wiz at 44% against the market baseline.

Key Takeaways

The article uses the same mispricing workflow as the finance roundups: market prior, Naly fair value, explicit edge, and a negative-case test for each event.

KT Wiz is the strongest same-day KBO disagreement at 44% Naly probability and +17 pp versus Polymarket.

Every matchup section includes its own Polymarket link, official KBO data references, and related news checks.

Low-confidence edges stay in the article because they are useful for calibration, but they should not be read as strong calls.

Summary Comparison Table

Event | Contract | Market Price | Naly Fair Price | Polymarket Top Answer | Naly Top Answer | Market Components | Naly Components | Component Score | Max Payout if Correct | Fair-Value Edge | Resolves | Result | Confidence | Why We Disagree
KT Wiz at Hanwha Eagles | KT Wiz WIN | 27% KT Wiz | 44% KT Wiz | Hanwha Eagles 73% | Hanwha Eagles 56% | KT Wiz 27%, Hanwha Eagles 73% | KT Wiz 44%, Hanwha Eagles 56% | 17pp | +73c | +17 | July 1, 2026 | | medium | KT Wiz prices at 27% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 44% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+17 pp).

1. KT Wiz at Hanwha Eagles

Market vs. our view: 27% vs 44% KT Wiz prices at 27% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 44% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+17 pp). Causal chain

Cause: Official KBO schedule data keeps KT Wiz at Hanwha Eagles in the same-day board, while Polymarket still has a live winner market.

Effect: Official team hitting and pitching tables create an expected-run read of KT Wiz 5.76, Hanwha Eagles 6.07.

Projection: KT Wiz is the article side if the fair-value gap survives lineup and news checks before first pitch. Key factors

Expected-run read: KT Wiz 5.76, Hanwha Eagles 6.07.

Polymarket implies 27%; Naly estimates 44%, leaving +17 pp of fair-value gap.

Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied.

News checks used for this matchup: KT Wiz Bullpen Struggles Prompt Han Seung-hyuk's Exclusion; KT Wiz vs Hanwha Eagles Prediction, 6/30/2026 KBO Pick, Tips and .... Bayesian calculation

Base rate: 27% market-implied prior.

Positive update: +19 points from schedule-verified expected runs, team run prevention, and side-specific news checks.

Negative update: -2 points for lineup uncertainty, starter volatility, and low-liquidity KBO market noise.

Naly estimate: 44%. Alternative explanation Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet. What would make us wrong A late scratch, confirmed starter mismatch, bullpen-rest surprise, or lineup change against KT Wiz would reduce the edge quickly, especially because this is only a medium-confidence call. Fresh checks

Polymarket market

Official KBO team hitting table

Official KBO team pitching table

Official KBO schedule

KT Wiz Bullpen Struggles Prompt Han Seung-hyuk's Exclusion - KT excluded pitcher Han Seung-hyuk from the roster on the 29th, a day without a game. Han was designated as a compensation player when the ...

KT Wiz vs Hanwha Eagles Prediction, 6/30/2026 KBO Pick, Tips and ... - The KT Wiz will take on the Hanwha Eagles on 6/30/26. Doc's has KBO predictions, picks, and tips for this matchup.

KT Wiz vs Hanwha Eagles: First Inning Run - Korea KBO - Kalshi - Track what Kalshi's markets predict for "KT Wiz vs Hanwha Eagles: First Inning Run", or trade it yourself.

Eagles pitcher Owen White out 6 weeks with hamstring injury - The Eagles said White tore his left hamstring during his Korea Baseball Organization (KBO) regular-season debut on Tuesday against the KT Wiz.

Data and source notes

Official KBO team hitting table was used for runs per game and offensive context.

Official KBO team pitching table was used for ERA, WHIP, runs allowed, and strikeout/walk context.

Official KBO schedule data was used to reject stale Polymarket markets that are still marked active after a game has completed.

Polymarket prices were used as the market-implied baseline and section-level market link for each matchup.

News snippets were used as a small adjustment only when they clearly referred to injuries, returns, starters, or availability.

Sources

https://polymarket.com/event/kbo-kt-han-2026-06-30?tid=kbo-kt-han-2026-06-30

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Record/Team/Hitter/Basic1.aspx

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Record/Team/Pitcher/Basic1.aspx

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Schedule/Schedule.aspx

https://www.chosun.com/english/sports-en/2026/06/30/SQCOBPRXYNDNTHLO5OGSOF7DQE/

https://www.docsports.com/free-picks/kbo/2026/kt-wiz-vs-hanwha-eagles-prediction-6-30-2026-kbo-pick-tips-and-odds.html

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxkborfi/kbo-first-inning-run/kxkborfi-26jul020530ktwhan

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260401012300315

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1d8rj5t/todays_kbo_things_get_chippy_between_hanwha_and/