KBO predictions for July 5, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

July 5, 2026 KBO board has 1 same-day Polymarket winner markets after official schedule verification. We rank every game by model-versus-market gap, show the market price, Naly estimate, expected-run read, confidence, and linked news checks. The strongest edge is Samsung Lions at 70% against the market baseline.

Key Takeaways

The article uses the same mispricing workflow as the finance roundups: market prior, Naly fair value, explicit edge, and a negative-case test for each event.

Samsung Lions is the strongest same-day KBO disagreement at 70% Naly probability and +18 pp versus Polymarket.

Every matchup section includes its own Polymarket link, official KBO data references, and related news checks.

Low-confidence edges stay in the article because they are useful for calibration, but they should not be read as strong calls.

Summary Comparison Table

Event | Contract | Market Price | Naly Fair Price | Polymarket Top Answer | Naly Top Answer | Market Components | Naly Components | Component Score | Max Payout if Correct | Fair-Value Edge | Resolves | Result | Confidence | Why We Disagree
Samsung Lions at SSG Landers | Samsung Lions WIN | 53% Samsung Lions | 70% Samsung Lions | Samsung Lions 53% | Samsung Lions 70% | Samsung Lions 53%, SSG Landers 48% | Samsung Lions 70%, SSG Landers 30% | 18pp | +48c | +18 | July 5, 2026 | | high | Samsung Lions prices at 53% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 70% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+18 pp).

1. Samsung Lions at SSG Landers

Market vs. our view: 53% vs 70% Samsung Lions prices at 53% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 70% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+18 pp). Causal chain

Cause: Official KBO schedule data keeps Samsung Lions at SSG Landers in the same-day board, while Polymarket still has a live winner market.

Effect: Official team hitting and pitching tables create an expected-run read of Samsung Lions 7, SSG Landers 4.6.

Projection: Samsung Lions is the article side if the fair-value gap survives lineup and news checks before first pitch. Key factors

Expected-run read: Samsung Lions 7, SSG Landers 4.6.

Polymarket implies 53%; Naly estimates 70%, leaving +18 pp of fair-value gap.

Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied.

News checks used for this matchup: Samsung Lions' 8-Run Inning Leads to 13-7 Comeback Over SSG ...; Lions drop injured third baseman; Landers replace second .... Bayesian calculation

Base rate: 53% market-implied prior.

Positive update: +19 points from schedule-verified expected runs, team run prevention, and side-specific news checks.

Negative update: -1 points for lineup uncertainty, starter volatility, and low-liquidity KBO market noise.

Naly estimate: 70%. Alternative explanation Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet. What would make us wrong A late scratch, confirmed starter mismatch, bullpen-rest surprise, or lineup change against Samsung Lions would reduce the edge quickly, especially because this is only a high-confidence call. Fresh checks

Polymarket market

Official KBO team hitting table

Official KBO team pitching table

Official KBO schedule

Samsung Lions' 8-Run Inning Leads to 13-7 Comeback Over SSG ... - Starting pitcher Choi Won-tae pitched five innings, allowing seven hits (including two home runs), three walks, and five strikeouts with six ...

Lions drop injured third baseman; Landers replace second ... - Kim was held out of the lineup for Game 4 of the first-round series against the SSG Landers on Tuesday with a lower back injury. The Lions, ...

KBO teams scramble to find replacements after multiple foreign ... - Samsung Lions starting pitcher Matt Manning, He felt elbow pain during a practice game in spring camp, and medical tests later confirmed he ...

Hyun-jin Ryu Makes History, Samsung Lions Continue to Soar - After missing time earlier this season because of a shoulder injury suffered late last year, he has now been placed on the injured list with ...

Data and source notes

Official KBO team hitting table was used for runs per game and offensive context.

Official KBO team pitching table was used for ERA, WHIP, runs allowed, and strikeout/walk context.

Official KBO schedule data was used to reject stale Polymarket markets that are still marked active after a game has completed.

Polymarket prices were used as the market-implied baseline and section-level market link for each matchup.

News snippets were used as a small adjustment only when they clearly referred to injuries, returns, starters, or availability.

Sources

https://polymarket.com/event/kbo-sam-ssg-2026-07-05?tid=kbo-sam-ssg-2026-07-05

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Record/Team/Hitter/Basic1.aspx

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Record/Team/Pitcher/Basic1.aspx

https://www.koreabaseball.com/Schedule/Schedule.aspx

https://www.chosun.com/english/sports-en/2026/07/04/TQEP5R2J5JFPFL6QNVTGWV4PBU/

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20251014009800315

https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/sports/kbo-teams-scramble-to-find-replacements-after-multiple-foreign-pitchers-are-injured/12577176

https://worldbaseball.com/kbo-roundup-hyun-jin-ryu-makes-history-samsung-lions-continue-to-soar/

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1tvnu0b/todays_kbo_the_ssg_landers_finally_end_their_13/