KBO predictions for May 13, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

May 13, 2026 KBO board has 5 same-day Polymarket winner markets after official schedule verification. We rank every game by model-versus-market gap, show the market price, Naly estimate, expected-run read, confidence, and linked news checks. The strongest edge is NC Dinos at 59% against the market baseline.

Key Takeaways

The article uses the same mispricing workflow as the finance roundups: market prior, Naly fair value, explicit edge, and a negative-case test for each event.

NC Dinos is the strongest same-day KBO disagreement at 59% Naly probability and +10 pp versus Polymarket.

Every matchup section includes its own Polymarket link, official KBO data references, and related news checks.

Low-confidence edges stay in the article because they are useful for calibration, but they should not be read as strong calls.

5 Mispricings at a Glance

Event Snapshot

SSG Landers at KT Wiz

KT Wiz WIN Resolves May 13, 2026 medium confidence

Polymarket Top Answer KT Wiz 57%

Naly Top Answer KT Wiz 63%

Max Payout if Correct +43c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: KT Wiz prices at 57% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 63% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+6 pp).

Event Snapshot

Hanwha Eagles at Kiwoom Heroes

Kiwoom Heroes WIN Resolves May 13, 2026 low confidence

Polymarket Top Answer Hanwha Eagles 72%

Naly Top Answer Hanwha Eagles 71%

Max Payout if Correct +72c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Kiwoom Heroes prices at 28% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 29% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+1 pp).

Event Snapshot

NC Dinos at Lotte Giants

NC Dinos WIN Resolves May 13, 2026 medium confidence

Polymarket Top Answer Lotte Giants 52%

Naly Top Answer NC Dinos 59%

Max Payout if Correct +52c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: NC Dinos prices at 49% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 59% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+10 pp).

Event Snapshot

Samsung Lions at LG Twins

Samsung Lions WIN Resolves May 13, 2026 low confidence

Polymarket Top Answer Samsung Lions 51%

Naly Top Answer Samsung Lions 54%

Max Payout if Correct +50c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Samsung Lions prices at 51% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 54% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+3 pp).

Event Snapshot

Doosan Bears at Kia Tigers

Doosan Bears WIN Resolves May 13, 2026 medium confidence

Polymarket Top Answer Kia Tigers 56%

Naly Top Answer Doosan Bears 51%

Max Payout if Correct +55c

0c 50c $1.00

Polymarket Naly

Why we disagree: Doosan Bears prices at 45% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 51% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+7 pp).

How to read this: Polymarket Top Answer and Naly Top Answer show the final answer each side sees as most likely. Max Payout if Correct shows the gross upside from the current quote to the $1 settlement if the selected contract side wins. The horizontal graph still shows where that selected side sits on a 0c to $1 range for Polymarket versus Naly.

Event 1

SSG Landers at KT Wiz

ForecastContract · KT Wiz WINResolves May 13, 2026medium confidence

+43c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer KT Wiz 57%

Naly Top Answer KT Wiz 63%
Trade on Polymarket →

KT Wiz prices at 57% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 63% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+6 pp).

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Official KBO schedule data keeps SSG Landers at KT Wiz in the same-day board, while Polymarket still has a live winner market.

↓

Effect Effect: Official team hitting and pitching tables create an expected-run read of SSG Landers 4.88, KT Wiz 5.7.

↓

Projection Projection: KT Wiz is the article side if the fair-value gap survives lineup and news checks before first pitch.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Expected-run read: KT Wiz 5.7, SSG Landers 4.88.
▲ | Polymarket implies 57%; Naly estimates 63%, leaving +6 pp of fair-value gap.
▲ | Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied.
▲ | News checks used for this matchup: KBO teams scramble to find replacements after multiple foreign ...; SSG Landers Trust Takehata Shota Again as Struggling Pitcher ....

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 57% market-implied prior.

Positive update: +8 points from schedule-verified expected runs, team run prevention, and side-specific news checks.

Negative update: -2 points for lineup uncertainty, starter volatility, and low-liquidity KBO market noise.

Naly estimate: 63%.

Alternative explanation: Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet.

What Would Make Us Wrong

A late scratch, confirmed starter mismatch, bullpen-rest surprise, or lineup change against KT Wiz would reduce the edge quickly, especially because this is only a medium-confidence call.

Fresh Checks

Polymarket market

Official KBO team hitting table

Official KBO team pitching table

Official KBO schedule

KBO teams scramble to find replacements after multiple foreign ... - The NC Dinos lost starting pitcher Riley Thompson just three days before the start of the new season in late March due to a left oblique injury.

SSG Landers Trust Takehata Shota Again as Struggling Pitcher ... - The starting pitcher is Kim Geon-woo. The first-team entry was removed for pitcher Jeon Young-jun, who suffered a right waist strain. SSG did ...

KBO Injury Report - RotoWire - KBO Injury Report. kt wiz. By Team. ALL DOO HAN KIA KIW KTW LG LOT NCD SAM SSG. By Position. ALL P C 1B 2B 3B SS OF DH MI CI. Player. Pos. Injury. Status.

(LEAD) KBO's Landers reinstate injured pitcher, cut ties with ... - The South Korean baseball club SSG Landers reinstated pitcher Roenis Elias from the injured list Tuesday, while terminating a deal with his temporary ...

Event 2

Hanwha Eagles at Kiwoom Heroes

ForecastContract · Kiwoom Heroes WINResolves May 13, 2026low confidence

+72c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer Hanwha Eagles 72%

Naly Top Answer Hanwha Eagles 71%
Trade on Polymarket →

Kiwoom Heroes prices at 28% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 29% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+1 pp).

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Official KBO schedule data keeps Hanwha Eagles at Kiwoom Heroes in the same-day board, while Polymarket still has a live winner market.

↓

Effect Effect: Official team hitting and pitching tables create an expected-run read of Hanwha Eagles 7.14, Kiwoom Heroes 4.35.

↓

Projection Projection: Kiwoom Heroes is the article side if the fair-value gap survives lineup and news checks before first pitch.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Expected-run read: Kiwoom Heroes 4.35, Hanwha Eagles 7.14.
▲ | Polymarket implies 28%; Naly estimates 29%, leaving +1 pp of fair-value gap.
▲ | Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied.
▲ | News checks used for this matchup: Twins lose starting pitcher to an oblique injury as they defend KBO title; Injury Plague Hits Doosan Bears' Key Pitchers.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 28% market-implied prior.

Positive update: +5 points from schedule-verified expected runs, team run prevention, and side-specific news checks.

Negative update: -4 points for lineup uncertainty, starter volatility, and low-liquidity KBO market noise.

Naly estimate: 29%.

Alternative explanation: Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet.

What Would Make Us Wrong

A late scratch, confirmed starter mismatch, bullpen-rest surprise, or lineup change against Kiwoom Heroes would reduce the edge quickly, especially because this is only a low-confidence call.

Fresh Checks

Polymarket market

Official KBO team hitting table

Official KBO team pitching table

Official KBO schedule

Twins lose starting pitcher to an oblique injury as they defend KBO title - Son had earlier recovered from an elbow injury that limited him to one inning against Australia at the World Baseball Classic (WBC) on March 9.

Injury Plague Hits Doosan Bears' Key Pitchers - A medical checkup revealed a minor flexor muscle injury. Choi, who was advised to rest for three weeks, is expected to return by late May. The ...

KBO's Kiwoom Heroes lose 3rd starting pitcher to injury - Lim missed three months earlier in the year with a hamstring injury, and then suffered the same injury after playing just one game on Aug. 18.

KBO club Eagles release injured pitcher Smith - The Korea Herald - The Hanwha Eagles have cut bait on injured pitcher Burch Smith after one abbreviated start. Prior to their game Wednesday evening, ...

Event 3

NC Dinos at Lotte Giants

ForecastContract · NC Dinos WINResolves May 13, 2026medium confidence

+52c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer Lotte Giants 52%

Naly Top Answer NC Dinos 59%
Trade on Polymarket →

NC Dinos prices at 49% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 59% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+10 pp).

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Official KBO schedule data keeps NC Dinos at Lotte Giants in the same-day board, while Polymarket still has a live winner market.

↓

Effect Effect: Official team hitting and pitching tables create an expected-run read of NC Dinos 4.83, Lotte Giants 3.78.

↓

Projection Projection: NC Dinos is the article side if the fair-value gap survives lineup and news checks before first pitch.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Expected-run read: NC Dinos 4.83, Lotte Giants 3.78.
▲ | Polymarket implies 49%; Naly estimates 59%, leaving +10 pp of fair-value gap.
▲ | Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied.
▲ | News checks used for this matchup: The NC Dinos fired a signal to escape from the slump. He changed ...; NC Dinos reshuffle lineup as injuries sideline Davidson and others.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 49% market-implied prior.

Positive update: +12 points from schedule-verified expected runs, team run prevention, and side-specific news checks.

Negative update: -2 points for lineup uncertainty, starter volatility, and low-liquidity KBO market noise.

Naly estimate: 59%.

Alternative explanation: Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet.

What Would Make Us Wrong

A late scratch, confirmed starter mismatch, bullpen-rest surprise, or lineup change against NC Dinos would reduce the edge quickly, especially because this is only a medium-confidence call.

Fresh Checks

Polymarket market

Official KBO team hitting table

Official KBO team pitching table

Official KBO schedule

The NC Dinos fired a signal to escape from the slump. He changed ... - Lotte's starting pitcher Rodriguez (six hits, six strikeouts, eight strikeouts, and five runs in 4.2 innings) was in pain. Rodriguez has ...

NC Dinos reshuffle lineup as injuries sideline Davidson and others - There was also a variable for the starting pitcher. Asia quota player Toda Natsuki was scheduled to start that day but was unable to take ...

KBO: Clubs Frantically Searching for Injury Replacements; All-Star ... - Similar to the Blue Jays, several KBO clubs are scrambling to find replacements for injured pitchers. Bears, Dinos Suffer Key Losses With ...

NC Dinos Team Page | RotoWire - Young Kyu Kim. Demoted from first team · September 24, 2023 ; Chang Mo Koo. Activated from injured list · September 20, 2023 ; Erick Fedde. Records 12 strikeouts.

Event 4

Samsung Lions at LG Twins

ForecastContract · Samsung Lions WINResolves May 13, 2026low confidence

+50c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer Samsung Lions 51%

Naly Top Answer Samsung Lions 54%
Trade on Polymarket →

Samsung Lions prices at 51% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 54% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+3 pp).

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Official KBO schedule data keeps Samsung Lions at LG Twins in the same-day board, while Polymarket still has a live winner market.

↓

Effect Effect: Official team hitting and pitching tables create an expected-run read of Samsung Lions 4.69, LG Twins 4.15.

↓

Projection Projection: Samsung Lions is the article side if the fair-value gap survives lineup and news checks before first pitch.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Expected-run read: Samsung Lions 4.69, LG Twins 4.15.
▲ | Polymarket implies 51%; Naly estimates 54%, leaving +3 pp of fair-value gap.
▲ | Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied.
▲ | News checks used for this matchup: LG's No. 4 Batters Struggle in Clutch Situations; Twins lose starting pitcher to an oblique injury as they defend KBO title.

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 51% market-implied prior.

Positive update: +7 points from schedule-verified expected runs, team run prevention, and side-specific news checks.

Negative update: -4 points for lineup uncertainty, starter volatility, and low-liquidity KBO market noise.

Naly estimate: 54%.

Alternative explanation: Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet.

What Would Make Us Wrong

A late scratch, confirmed starter mismatch, bullpen-rest surprise, or lineup change against Samsung Lions would reduce the edge quickly, especially because this is only a low-confidence call.

Fresh Checks

Polymarket market

Official KBO team hitting table

Official KBO team pitching table

Official KBO schedule

LG's No. 4 Batters Struggle in Clutch Situations - LGs No. 4 Batters Struggle in Clutch Situations Team Fails to Capitalize in Key Moments as Moon Bo-gyeong Recovers from Ankle Injury ...

Twins lose starting pitcher to an oblique injury as they defend KBO title - Son had earlier recovered from an elbow injury that limited him to one inning against Australia at the World Baseball Classic (WBC) on March 9.

Lions extend contract with injury replacement O'Loughlin - The Samsung Lions have extended their contract with their injury replacement, Jack O'Loughlin, to the end of next month. The Lions made the ...

KBO Injury Report - RotoWire - There are no injuries at the moment. Export Table Data. Excel CSV. Unlock the Full Injury Report Today. Subscribe Now. RotoWire Logo.

Event 5

Doosan Bears at Kia Tigers

ForecastContract · Doosan Bears WINResolves May 13, 2026medium confidence

+55c

Max Payout if Correct

Polymarket Top Answer Kia Tigers 56%

Naly Top Answer Doosan Bears 51%
Trade on Polymarket →

Doosan Bears prices at 45% on Polymarket, but the KBO run-environment model lands at 51% after official hitting, pitching, schedule, and news checks (+7 pp).

Causal Chain

Cause Cause: Official KBO schedule data keeps Doosan Bears at Kia Tigers in the same-day board, while Polymarket still has a live winner market.

↓

Effect Effect: Official team hitting and pitching tables create an expected-run read of Doosan Bears 4.79, Kia Tigers 4.72.

↓

Projection Projection: Doosan Bears is the article side if the fair-value gap survives lineup and news checks before first pitch.

Key Factors

| Factor
▲ | Expected-run read: Doosan Bears 4.79, Kia Tigers 4.72.
▲ | Polymarket implies 45%; Naly estimates 51%, leaving +7 pp of fair-value gap.
▲ | Official KBO hitting and pitching tables feed the offensive and run-prevention baseline before news is applied.
▲ | News checks used for this matchup: Yoon Do-hyun Returns to KIA Tigers After 39-Day Injury Layoff; KBO: Clubs Frantically Searching for Injury Replacements; All-Star ....

Bayesian Calculation

Base rate: 45% market-implied prior.

Positive update: +9 points from schedule-verified expected runs, team run prevention, and side-specific news checks.

Negative update: -2 points for lineup uncertainty, starter volatility, and low-liquidity KBO market noise.

Naly estimate: 51%.

Alternative explanation: Polymarket may be correctly pricing starting-pitcher, bullpen, or lineup information that the public KBO team tables and news crawl have not captured yet.

What Would Make Us Wrong

A late scratch, confirmed starter mismatch, bullpen-rest surprise, or lineup change against Doosan Bears would reduce the edge quickly, especially because this is only a medium-confidence call.

Fresh Checks

Polymarket market

Official KBO team hitting table

Official KBO team pitching table

Official KBO schedule

Yoon Do-hyun Returns to KIA Tigers After 39-Day Injury Layoff - Yoon Do-hyun Returns to KIA Tigers After 39-Day Injury Layoff Manager Lee Beom-ho urges Yoon to prove himself against left-handed pitchers ...

KBO: Clubs Frantically Searching for Injury Replacements; All-Star ... - Similar to the Blue Jays, several KBO clubs are scrambling to find replacements for injured pitchers. Bears, Dinos Suffer Key Losses With ...

KIA Tigers' Hong Geon-hee Out 4 Weeks with Shoulder Injury - Pitcher diagnosed with partial supraspinatus tear; manager links injury to velocity focus during training. By OSEN. Published 2026.04.18.

KBO teams scramble to find replacements after multiple foreign ... - Doosan Bears pitcher Chris Flexen was forced to leave a game last Friday after just one inning due to back pain, which was later diagnosed as a ...