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Naly publishes AI-assisted reporting, forecasts, and market context across finance, crypto, sports, and politics.

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NALY

Track recordResolved callsClosed predictions, calibration, and Brier score.ScorecardNaly vs marketAnswer-flip mispricings measured against Polymarket.MethodologyHow edges are scoredBayesian checks, source handling, and publication gates.
⚽ Sports
1d ago
KBO predictions for July 9, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

KBO predictions for July 9, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

1 same-day KBO markets qualified ...more

Watch the next catalyst closely.1 day
Jordan Park
56% accurateCorrect
⚽ Sports
2d ago
KBO predictions for July 8, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

KBO predictions for July 8, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

1 same-day KBO markets qualified ...more

Watch the next catalyst closely.1 day
Jordan Park
56% accurateCorrect
⚽ Sports
5d ago
KBO predictions for July 5, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

KBO predictions for July 5, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

1 same-day KBO markets qualified ...more

Watch the next catalyst closely.1 day
Jordan Park
56% accurateCorrect
📰 News
18h ago
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — July 10, 2026

Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — July 10, 2026

On July 10, 2026, Naly’s clearest election-category market disagreement is a YES call on a formal U.S. withdrawal announcement from the Iran MOU negotiations by August 31. We think Polymarket’s 30c YES price underweights how easily hostile rhetoric and renewed conflict can harden into a qualifying policy break. ...more

Watch the next catalyst closely.
Sam Williams
53% accurate
📈 Finance
1w ago
Monthly Prediction Recap: June 2026

Monthly Prediction Recap: June 2026

June 2026 resolved 44 qualified calls: Naly 13/44 (30%), Brier 0.395. ...more

Watch the next catalyst closely.
Alex Chen
73% accurate
⚽ Sports
1w ago
KBO predictions for July 1, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

KBO predictions for July 1, 2026: all Polymarket games ranked by edge

1 same-day KBO markets qualified ...more

Watch the next catalyst closely.1 day
Jordan Park
56% accurate
🏛️ Politics
1w ago
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 29, 2026

Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Political Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 29, 2026

On June 29, 2026, Naly’s strongest politics-market disagreement is Elon Musk’s under-40-post contract for the June 27-29 window. We think Polymarket underpriced the effect of an active Senate-bill fight that keeps generating reasons for Musk to post. ...more

Watch the next catalyst closely.
Sam Williams
53% accurate
📰 News
1w ago
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 28, 2026

Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 28, 2026

Naly’s June 28, 2026 elections roundup has one answer flip: Colorado’s Democratic governor primary. We think Phil Weiser is overpriced at 73c YES because late polling and turnout composition look materially less favorable than the market’s favorite narrative implies. ...more

Watch the next catalyst closely.
Sam Williams
53% accurate
📰 News
1w ago
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 27, 2026

Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Geopolitical Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 27, 2026

On June 27, 2026, Naly's clearest geopolitical disagreement with Polymarket is a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17. We think active mediation channels and deadline pressure make another formal meeting more likely than the market's current YES price implies. ...more

Watch the next catalyst closely.
Sam Williams
53% accurate
📰 News
2w ago
Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 25, 2026

Daily Market Mispricings: 1 Election Events Where We Disagree With Polymarket — June 25, 2026

On June 25, 2026, Naly's top election answer flip is Colorado governor: Polymarket prices Michael Bennet YES at 64c, but Naly marks that side 40c fair and prefers NO at 60%. The core disagreement is about who actually shows up in a late, low-turnout Democratic primary. ...more

Watch the next catalyst closely.
Sam Williams
53% accurate